321. Memorandum From the Director of the Bureau of Intelligence and Research (Hilsman) to Acting Secretary of State Bowles 1
SUBJECT
- Assessment of Dominican Situation
Let me call your attention to T-588 of September 17 (received yesterday),2 from Ciudad Trujillo, a marked copy of which is attached. I feel that the analysis contained in this three-part message, especially regarding the effects of continued US support for the present Dominican government, confirms a viewpoint which INR has held since the Trujillo assassination but which has not, until now, received widespread appreciation.
Paragraphs 4-10 of the subject telegram are especially pertinent. In essence, the Consul General emphasizes that the present Dominican government is transitory, that the demand for the Trujillos to leave “has become an obsession,” and that longer term US interests dictate that a friendly, anti-Castro, anti-Communist government succeed the present one. The attainment of the latter objective hinges upon the state of US relations with the opposition which are deteriorating because of the latter’s belief that the US is, in effect, supporting the present government. With growing dissatisfaction in the Dominican Republic over OAS and US policy, Castro-minded influence in the opposition is increasing.
Our analysts in INR strongly agree with this analysis. We believe that the US, by unintentionally identifying itself with an unpopular cause through its “transition” policy, is seriously jeopardizing its long-term interests in the Dominican Republic. A continuation of present trends will increase the likelihood that a successor to the Balaguer government will be Castroist. Parenthetically it should be noted that the Consul General’s estimate that Balaguer and Ramfis cannot control the situation for more than a few months, a judgment in which we concur, modifies the Intelligence Community’s estimate contained in the final paragraph of SNIE 86.2-61, “The Dominican Situation,” July 25, 1961.3
In view of the above-described situation, it seems somewhat surprising to us that the Consul General continues to endorse, albeit hesitantly, even the partial lifting of OAS sanctions. Given the heated political climate of the Dominican Republic, the removal of OAS sanctions [Page 666] would surely be widely interpreted, both in the Dominican Republic and in Latin America generally, as further, conclusive evidence that the United States is committed to an indefinite continuation of the present regime.
- Source: Department of State, Central Files, 739.00/9-2261. Confidential. A covering memorandum indicates that this paper was sent to Bundy on September 22.↩
- Not printed. (Ibid., 739.00/9-1761)↩
- “We believe it likely that the present Dominican Government will be able to retain control of the situation, at least until the May 1962 elections.” [Footnote in the source text. SNIE 86.2-61 is Document 317.]↩