356. Memorandum by Director of Central Intelligence McCone0
Question: What does the Director think of the test ban agreement?
Answer: In appraising the question of whether the proposed test ban agreement would meet the best interests of the United States one must consider the measurable advantages of continuing testing, which are of particular interest to the Military and to the AEC and its laboratories, and the broader questions of national policy of interest to the President.
It is obvious that by continued testing, we can improve our weapon technology and the quality and dependability of our nuclear weapons. On the other hand, continuation of testing would bring us up against the imponderables of world opinions, intensification of the arms race, dangers inherent in the proliferation question, and finally, fear on the part of that segment of people in the United States and, for that matter the world, whether exaggerated or not, of the consequences of radioactive fallout.
On consideration, our present weapons seem adequate for our military needs, so that further atmospheric testing is unnecessary. To be sure, [Page 865] we could develop larger weapons, but the case for the military effectiveness of larger weapons is not very good in contrast to the case which can be made for a larger number of low-megaton weapons deliverable with greater accuracy of improved weapons systems. In the anti-ballistic missile field, it appears that an ABM system can be built from present technology but it probably will not be the most economical nor the best system. Moreover, significant gains can be made in ABM warhead development by underground testing. In the tactical field, any desired development can be pursued in the underground. Important strides can be made in the underground and many, though not all, weapons effects can be developed in the underground.
On balance, it appears to me our national interest is served by the test ban treaty for two reasons: First, the proliferation question can be partially though not totally resolved; and secondly, a step, though a small one, will be made in reaching an understanding between the two opposing nuclear powers.
This judgment is valid on the assumption that the United States will be resolute in preserving the vitality of its laboratories, in pursuing satisfactory underground test programs to add to the knowledge and the state of the art of the development of our nuclear weapons, and finally, to maintain a high state of readiness our Pacific proving grounds so that a test program could be resumed promptly if the Soviets abrogate the treaty.
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, DCI Memoranda 3/1/62-4/30/65. Secret. A typewritten note after the drafting line reads: “Noted by Dr. Chamberlain, whose changes are incorporated.” This memorandum was possibly prepared in anticipation of the briefing described in Document 357.↩