Office of the Historian

237. Telegram From the Central Intelligence Agency to the Station in Saigon1

Washington, October 29, 1963—9:21 p.m.
1.

Available info here indicates that Generals do not have clear preponderance of force in Saigon area, posing possibility of extended fighting, which we wish to avoid, or even defeat. We do not refer to overall numerical relationship, but weighted estimate with recognition of critical factors of key units, surprise, resolution, disposition, strength, etc. Would appreciate your review of our holdings re following units, and their component elements, viewed here as of decisive importance and your estimate of role they would play in coup initiated by these Generals. [Page 476] Presidential Guard. Two tens totaling 2500 men, fifteen tanks twelve armored personnel carriers near Palace, presumed loyal although Don claims one company and both Thao and Tuyen have claimed that disaffection exists.

The Airborne Brigade. Six tens totaling 4800 men. Two tens Bien Hoa area. Remaining four tens in Cap Mil District, especially at Tan Son Nhut. Don claims half with coup, Tuyen claimed first, fifth, sixth and eighth tens disaffected. Many officers discontented but contradictory reports re Col. Vien loyalty.

Marine Brigade. Four tens totaling 4500 men. First and third tens Saig. Second and fourth in IV Corps. Reports indicate two or three tens reported disaffected but no firm identification. No hard reading on Commander Col. Khang or unit commanders in terms willingness actively join coup. Armor first squadron principally Saigon and north. Varied collection tanks, armored cars and personnel carriers. Commander in past reported as loyal to Diem but some more recent indications of disaffection by him and by several unit commanders under him. Our reading, however, is that unit would be loyal to Palace in coup situation. Second squadron My Tho. Some early indications of pro coup possibilities but more recent reports leave orientation in doubt.

Special Forces. 1200 men of which bulk in Saigon area, all presumed loyal to Palace.

Police. Uniformed 4500. No hard info but not considered decisive. Combat police 800. No hard info but presumed loyal to regime.

Fifth Division. Bien Hoa and north. 9200 men. We hold bulk as unknown despite reports certain smaller components have tendencies toward Generals and Don’s claim of whole division.

Seventh Division. My Tho. 9200 men. We carried Commander Colonel Dam as possible joining coup but no hard info this unit.

Air Force. Possibly susceptible to coup effort but believed by nature not capable of deciding issue in coup situation.

Other units exist in Saigon area such as Quang Trung training center, military police, civil guard, territorial regiment, administrative and technical personnel etc., but these not believed likely to be decisive in coup situation.

2.
Summarizing, comparative forces lineup would appear give Palace quite firm base in Presidential Guard, Special Forces, with possible help of some Marines, some Airborne and some Armor. Coup side is estimated to include some Airborne, some Marines, some Armor and Air Force and units outside of Saigon which could not play immediate role.
3.
In answering above, request that availability of transportation, fuel, ammo and any known GVN control mechanisms over units be considered in connection with each unit’s loyalty and ability to influence a coup in Saigon.
4.
Request that MACV and MAAG be consulted in formulating answers to above, and that Amb be shown this message.
  1. Source: Department of State, Central Files, POL 26 S VIET. Secret. The source text is CIA telegram [document number not declassified] sent to the Department of State eyes only for Rusk, Harriman, Ball, Hilsman, and Hughes. Also sent to the Office of the Secretary of Defense eyes only for McNamara, Gilpatric, Taylor, Krulak, and William Bundy; to the White House eyes only for McGeorge Bundy; and to Honolulu eyes only for Felt. Received at the Department of State at 11:34 p.m.↩