205. Editorial Note

On October 22, 1963, the Director of the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Thomas L. Hughes, sent Secretary Rusk research memorandum RFE-90, entitled “Statistics on the War Effort in South Vietnam Show Unfavorable Trends.” The abstract of the paper reads as follows:

“Statistics on the insurgency in South Vietnam, although neither thoroughly trustworthy nor entirely satisfactory as criteria, indicate an unfavorable shift in the military balance. Since July 1963, the trend in Viet Cong casualties, weapons losses, and defections has been downward while the number of Viet Cong armed attacks and other incidents has been upward. Comparison with earlier periods suggests that the military position of the government of Vietnam may have been set back to the point it occupied six months to a year ago. These trends coincide in time with the sharp deterioration of the political situation. At the same time, even without the Buddhist issue and the attending government crisis, it is possible that the Diem regime would have been unable to maintain the favorable trends of previous periods in the face [Page 419] of the accelerated Viet Cong effort.” (Kennedy Library, Hilsman Papers, Countries Series-Vietnam, JCS Comments on RFE-90, 11/4/63)

Lyndon Johnson, in The Vantage Point, page 62, wrote that in December 1963 he read “a review of the military situation developed by the State Department’s intelligence analysts. The report concluded that the military effort had been deteriorating in important ways for several months.” Apparently Johnson was referring to RFE-90. A copy is in the Johnson Library, Vice President’s Security Files, Government Agencies, Department of State Intelligence Reports. For the complete text of RFE-90, see United States-Vietnam Relations, 1945-1967, Book 12, pages 579-589.

For a subsequent Department of State-Joint Chiefs of Staff exchange of views on RFE-90, see Document 306.