261. Memorandum From Michael V. Forrestal of the National Security Council Staff to the Presidentʼs Assistant for National Security Affairs (Bundy)1
SUBJECT
- Situation in the Far East
Yesterday you asked what the particular trouble spots were in the Far East now that the immediate crises in Laos and Indonesia have been toned down. In order of their urgency, I should imagine that the following are the current problems.
South Vietnam
I have a hunch that the six months beginning after the end of the rainy season in November will be critical in South Vietnam. It is during this period that we will have a clearer indication of whether the steps we have taken in that country are, in the long run, going to be [Page 584] productive. The level of military activity will undoubtedly increase and, as a result, there will be more casualties—including Americans. Public opinion in this country will probably support such casualties if on balance it seems that we are getting somewhere. If, on the other hand, it looks as though our attempts to improve the military, economic and social situation at village level in South Vietnam are being frustrated by our own inefficiency or Diemʼs recalcitrance, we will be in for real trouble.
At the moment I suspect that our pressures on Diem are a little too slow acting and need to be stepped up even at some risk.
[Here follow sections on South Korea, Indonesia, and Laos.]
- Source: Kennedy Library, National Security Files, Staff Memoranda, Michael V. Forrestal.↩