157. Telegram From the Embassy in Japan to the Department of State0
3798. Personal for Assistant Secretary Parsons from MacArthur. Although Ikeda reluctantly made good on his commitment (Embtel 3630)1 [Page 300] to support Kishi in voting the treaty, he has since been disclaiming any responsibility for bringing treaty to vote and has been pointedly withholding support from Kishi and flirting with Miki and anti-mainstream groups that are calling on Kishi to resign.
Situation for Kishi is very precarious, with Kono, Miki, Matsumura, and Ishii calling for him to resign; Socialists and leftists mounting massive daily demonstrations against him; and anti-governmental press bitterly attacking him. Ohno, Ishii, and Ikeda (all of whom have aspirations to be PriMin), although they supported Kishi in voting on treaty, are now sitting on fence. If they should join forces with anti-mainstream group in calling for Kishi to resign it is difficult to see how Kishi could survive. And if Kishi Govt falls before treaty is ratified and enters into effect, although legally case can be made that ratification vote of lower house on May 20 stands, as practical matter it is difficult to believe that final ratification would not be very seriously jeopardized.
Key at present is Ikeda. If he will get off fence and stand firmly with Kishi until treaty is ratified and enters into effect, both Ohno and Ishii will probably stand firmly with Kishi also.
However, if Ikeda joins with anti-mainstream in asking Kishi to resign, both Ohno and Ishii will almost certainly go along with him.
In light foregoing, I suggest you get in touch with Yoshida2 at once (even if it means sending Dick Sneider or someone to New York) to tell him on private personal basis that reports from Tokyo indicate that Ikeda, Ohno, and Ishii have stopped actively supporting Kishi following favorable vote on treaty and are adopting neutral position that appears generally to be playing into hands of pro-Communist and neutralist elements in Japan that would like to see imminent collapse of Kishi Govt with treaty ratification also going down drain. You should say that if anything happens to treaty it will be greatest victory Communists could gain in Asia and terrible blow not only to US-Japan relations but particularly for Japan itself. Ikeda seems to be key to situation and in these circumstances you hope Yoshida will communicate directly and urgently with Ikeda to urge him to support Kishi Govt and its action in passing treaty. I hope to see Ikeda myself tomorrow and urge him to support Kishi and therefore I would not wish you to mention me specifically in your approach to Yoshida, but there would be no objection to saying US Govt is deeply concerned on basis of press and other reliable reports it has received from Tokyo.
- Source: Department of State, Central Files, 794.00/5–2360. Confidential; Niact; Limit Distribution.↩
- In telegram 3630 from Tokyo, May 11, MacArthur repeated that he had learned during a conversation with Tsutsumi, former Diet Speaker and “supreme adviser” to the LDP, that LDP faction leaders including Ikeda seemed hesitant to support treaty passage in the Diet in May. The telegram went on to report subsequent meetings between Tsutsumi and Ikeda and between MacArthur and Ikeda. Ikeda told MacArthur that he, Ikeda, would be able to obtain the support of the Miki–Matsumura faction in the final vote for the passage of the security treaty. (Ibid., 794.00/5–1160)↩
- Yoshida was in the United States taking part in the celebrations commemorating the centennial of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and Japan.↩