99. Paper Prepared by the Policy Planning Staff1
ANOTHER LOOK AT THE KASHMIR PROBLEM
Summary and Conclusions
The attached paper2 suggests that the successful conclusion of the negotiations for the Indus Waters Treaty, and the improved atmosphere in which Nehru and Ayub met to sign the treaty, may have enhanced the prospects for a settlement of the long-standing Kashmir dispute. It is pointed out that progress toward a solution is apt to be directly dependent upon Ayub and Nehru personally in view of the unique position which each holds in his own country. Reference is also made to the urgent need for a settlement.
The paper briefly reviews the position of the United States toward the Kashmir issue, in which we have been involved since the beginning but in which we have not played an active role in recent years. The conclusion is reached that the United States should continue to refrain from taking an initiative with the two parties.
After making the point that a settlement along the lines of the never-implemented United Nations resolutions of 1948 and 1949, calling for demilitarization of Kashmir followed by a plebiscite, no longer seems to be a practical possibility, the paper discusses various alternative solutions. It is concluded that partition, with special arrangements covering the Vale of Kashmir, is the most realistic of these alternatives and that there is some reason to believe it might prove to be acceptable to both India and Pakistan. Under such a solution, those portions of the state lying outside the Vale would be divided between the two countries while a decision on the future disposition of the Vale would be postponed for a period of five to ten years. Suggestions are advanced for two alternative types of transitional regimes for the Vale and for some UN presence there during this period. It is pointed out that any solution should include measures to guarantee Pakistan’s interest in the waters of the rivers flowing through Kashmir.
- Source: Department of State, S/P Files: Lot 67 D 548, India. Secret. Assistant Secretary of State for Policy Planning Gerard Smith forwarded this paper to Deputy Under Secretary Hare on November 22, under cover of a memorandum that reads: “There is attached a recent S/P study of the Kashmir problem which I believe may be of some interest to you.”↩
- The attached 17-page paper is not printed.↩