227. Editorial Note
On November 4, NIE 24–58, a National
Intelligence Estimate entitled “The Political Outlook in Italy,” was
issued. The conclusions of NIE 24–58
read as follows:
- “1. The May elections in Italy demonstrated a trend toward
the moderate left; a majority of the Italian people
apparently demand social and economic reform, but wish to
avoid radical solutions. Gains were made by the center and
left groups of the Christian Democratic Party (CD) and by
the faction within the Socialist Party (PSI) which seeks to
reduce Socialist-Communist cooperation. The elections also
made it clear that the CD will continue to dominate the
Italian political scene, at least until the next elections
which are scheduled for 1963. (Paras 9,27)
- “2. The Communist Party (PCI) retained but did not increase its
proportion of the popular vote. It dominates the largest
labor federation and many cooperatives and local government
administrations. The joint participation of the PSI with the
PCI in labor and local
governments makes it difficult for the PSI to make a
complete break with the Communists. (Paras. 16–19)
- “3. The outlook is favorable for a fairly lengthy tenure
of office for the Fanfani government which is based on a
coalition of the CD and the Social Democrats (PSDI). The government’s
parliamentary position, however, is precarious. It does not
have a majority and is subject to many pressures. For
instance, there will be constant pressures for a merger of
the two Socialist parties. While such a merger is not likely
in the next year or so, pressures may become so great as to
cause the PSDI to splinter
or possibly to cause its leader Saragat to withdraw his
party from the coalition, (Paras. 23, 25)
- “4. Fanfani’s
parliamentary position will be improved in the likely event
that the Republican Party (PRI) agrees to support him or at least to
abstain in confidence votes. Although the PSI will probably
not agree officially to support Fanfani, some of its parliamentary
delegation may abstain, if not vote in the affirmative, on
some items of Fanfani’s program. (Paras. 23, 24)
- “5. Fanfani’s
principal problem will be the meeting of popular
expectations of social and economic reform with the limited
political and economic assets available to him. We believe
that in the next few months, Fanfani will concentrate on less
controversial programs, including school and low-cost
housing construction and the expansion of social security
benefits, in order to minimize the resistance of his more
conservative supporters. The successful carrying out of
these programs, which we believe likely, will strengthen his
political position. The government will have greater
difficulty in dealing with the pressing economic and social
problems of southern Italy. Fanfani appears determined to make
considerable efforts in this area, and if he fails to
attract private capital, he will probably increase the scope
of government action. (Paras 24, 32)
- “6. Italy will continue to give strong support to NATO and European integration
moves. It will probably seek a greater voice in European [Page 485] circles and pursue
a more active foreign policy, particularly in the
Mediterranean area. More importantly, however, Italy will
seek to maintain its close ties with the US. (Paras. 34, 35,
37)” (Department of State, OCB Files: Lot 61 D 385, Italy 1958–60)
