The enclosed report on the subject, prepared by the Interdepartmental
Committee established for the purpose by NSC Action No. 1842–e, is
transmitted herewith for consideration by the National Security
Council.
The enclosed report will be considered by the Council at its meeting on
Thursday, March 27, 1958, in the light of discussion of an oral briefing
on the subject by the Federal Civil Defense Administration and the
Atomic Energy Commission, and of a presentation on Soviet Civil Defense
and Air Raid Construction by the Director of Central Intelligence, at
the NSC meeting on March 20, 1958.
Attachment
Memorandum Prepared for the National Security Council
Washington,
March 13,
1958
[Facsimile Page 3]
SUBJECT
- Measures to Carry Out the Concept of Shelter
REFERENCES
- A. NSC Action No. 1814
- B. NSC 5724; NSC 5724/1
- C. NSC Actions Nos. 1841 and
1842
- D. Memorandum for the NSC
dated Jan. 22, 1958
- E. NSC 5802/1
Introduction
Your Committee has adopted the following frame of reference for its
task:
- (1)
- That shelter from radioactive fallout is required to limit
expected casualties from a nuclear attack to a level which
would permit the United States to survive as a nation. The
concept of fallout shelter is to be incorporated into the
national Civil Defense program for protection of the civil
population.
- (2)
- That measures taken to incorporate fallout shelter
construction must avoid so far as possible adverse
psychological effects upon the United States and allied
nations as well, and must not detract from support of
retaliatory and active defense capabilities.
- (3)
- That measures taken must rely primarily upon private and
local Governmental initiative, stimulated by Federal
leadership, including Federal example.
- (4)
- That effective Federal leadership will require a skillful
and expanded program of public education with emphasis upon
weapons’ effects and ways in which citizens can protect
themselves.
- (5)
- That measures adopted must not be inconsistent with the
possibility that the Government may wish at some future time
to initiate a program of the type recommended by the
Security Resources Panel, possibly upon a compressed time
schedule. However, measures undertaken at this time should
not be based upon the assumption that there will be a
nationwide Federal construction program; rather the effort
should be designed to preclude the necessity of such direct
measures if possible.
Proposed Measures2
The Committee recommends adoption of the following measures:
1. Research and Development, including prototype construction
(exploiting multiple-use principle to the maximum)
$ Millions
$6.5 (annual
rate)
a. Research
Although sufficient knowledge of weapons’ effects and of shelter
design now exists to permit proceeding with a complete and effective
fallout shelter program if this were deemed desirable, expanded
research is necessary to refine our knowledge, particularly of blast
shelter, and develop more economical and efficient shelter models.
In a program of this magnitude, well considered research should save
many times its initial cost.
The following program of research is already identified and can be
undertaken as rapidly as funds are made available.
(1) The field testing, with nuclear weapons, of shelters, other
structures, and shelter equipment; provision for development and
execution of radiological defense measures; exposure of animals to
weapons’ effects; and the instrumentation necessary to evaluate
results obtained.
----- $2.0 Millions
[Typeset Page 98]
[Facsimile Page 5]
(2) The design of various prototype shelters, the development of
shelter programs, and development and laboratory testing of
structures, facilities, equipment and materials not requiring
nuclear field tests.
----- $1.0 Million
(3) Studies dealing with psychological, emotional, educational and
morale problems and determinations of tolerance limits under
emergency conditions; medical, food, and water requirements in
shelter habitation; and sanitary controls to permit tolerable
occupation.
----- $1.5 Millions
(4) Development of architectural designs and specifications for new
types of multiple-use shelters which will be attractive as well as
practical. The Committee believes that attention should be given to
the use of grants to schools of architecture and engineering which
would stimulate curriculum development, training of new students,
and new concepts of shelter design.
----- $2.0 Millions
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
While the above program will be of highest importance in improving
our capabilities to develop a comprehensive shelter system, there
are serious unsolved problems relating to effects of nuclear attack
on humans, including the immediate and long-range effects of
radiation, and to the development of measures to provide protection
against or mitigate those effects. The Committee feels that a
special assessment is required to determine whether present research
efforts in this field by the several agencies of Government are
reasonably adequate or whether further coordination or acceleration
is indicated. It is therefore recommended that a suitable group be
designated to evaluate the present efforts and to report on their
adequacy, including recommendations for improvement of the total
national effort, if such is warranted.
b. Prototypes
$Millions
$55.4 (3 year
program)
This program combines (1) engineering development of multiple use
shelter types, (2) exercise of Federal leadership and (3) public
education. Each prototype will be one-of-a-kind, multiple-use where
possible. Experience will be gained not
[Facsimile Page 6]
only in design and
construction, but in administration. Prototype structures will be
erected on Government-owned land where necessary and desirable.
Costs are based on estimated cost of the shelter features only,
except in the case of garages and new school prototypes, where the
entire cost of the structure is included. The Federal Government
will recover as much of the beneficial-use value of underground
garages as possible.
[Typeset Page 99]
The Committee recommends the following types (including in each group
both blast and fallout prototype designs):
(1) Underground parking garages
10 prototypes of variable size, ranging from 100–1000 car garages
-----$31.9 Millions
(2) Understreet shelters
4 prototypes ranging in size from 1000–3000 shelter spaces
-----$2.1 Millions
(3) Subway shelters
4 prototypes, ranging in size from 1000–5000 shelter spaces
-----$1.5 Millions
(4) Shelters under new highways
16 prototypes, ranging in size from 500–5000 spaces
-----$4.6 Millions
(5) Shelters as additions to existing schools
8 prototypes, varying designs to include classrooms, cafeterias, and
assembly space, and groups of 4 classrooms
-----$1.9 Millions
[Facsimile Page 7]
(6) New schools, incorporating shelters
4 prototypes, ranging in size from 200–500 pupils, each sheltering
twice the normal school population
-----$1.6 Millions
(7) Shelters as additions to existing hospitals
6 prototypes of needed hospital additions, including cafeterias,
visitors’ and convalescent rooms, and reserve areas. Will vary from
500–2000 person shelters.
-----$1.1 Millions
(8) Multiple-use shelters for incorporation in new hospitals
6 prototype multiple-use shelters ranging in size from 300–2500
shelter spaces
-----$1.6 Millions
(9) Shelters for industrial plants
15 prototypes, ranging in size from 500–5000 spaces, including
special decontamination features
-----$6.0 Millions
[Typeset Page 100]
(10) Shelters for commercial buildings
6 prototypes, ranging in size from 1000–5000 person shelters
-----$2.3 Millions
(11) Single and multi-family residence adaptations to provide
shelter
16 prototypes, including bathroom shelters, basement recreation
areas, farm storage areas, basement work areas, and enlarged
basements under porches for storage, and larger shelters for
multi-family use.
-----$0.8 Million
$Millions
$75 (3 year
program)
[Facsimile Page 8]
2. Surveys and Pilot Studies
a. Development of estimated availability of existing shelter on a
sampling basis
As a basis for national planning, definitive information is needed
regarding the capability of existing structures to provide fallout
shelter, particularly in large cities. The Committee recommends that
a survey of existing structures be conducted on a sampling basis to
yield such information. This would be handled through direct Federal
contract, and would be completed in one year.
-----$2.0 Millions
3b. Survey of Existing Shelter
The Committee recommends that priority attention be given to a
systematic survey of the potential of existing buildings and other
structures such as mines and subways to provide fallout shelter with
little or no modification. Such areas should be identified for
immediate use. Property owners should be urged to modify their
buildings to provide fallout shelters where feasible, and assisted
in plans and designs incident thereto.
The survey would require approximately two years for completion and
would start after completion of the sample survey of existing
structures. It would be conducted as an extension of the survival
planning program through Federal contracts with States and cities,
with the Federal Government providing the money. Costs are estimated
as
[Typeset Page 101]
follows:
100 largest cities at an average of $200,000 per city, $20 million
dollars; the next 400 cities in order of size, an average of $50,000
each, or $20 million; remaining areas (predominantly rural), $8
million. Surveys would take full advantage of data already collected
by survival plans.
-----$48 Millions (2 year program)
[Facsimile Page 9]
4c. Pilot Studies
The Committee believes that the nationwide survey of existing
shelters should be supplemented by an intensive study of the total
range and nature of problems which might arise in conjunction with a
shelter program. This would be done by intensive study of selected
metropolitan areas on a pilot basis. The studies would extend to the
development of complete engineering plans and specifications;
problems of zoning, condemnation, local organization and
administration; detailed site studies, and plans for maintenance and
operation.
Studies of the type proposed would cost approximately $5 million for
a major metropolitan area. It is proposed that 5 representative
cities be included in the pilot study program, with all studies to
be completed within two years. Studies would require State and local
participation, but the major part of the work would be done through
research-contract financed by the Federal Government.
-----$25 Millions (2 year program)
$Millions
3. Public Education $12.5 (first year)
25.0 (annually thereafter)
The Committee agrees that greatly increased public understanding of
bomb phenomenology, especially the nature of gamma radiation, is
required if Federal urging of fallout
[Facsimile Page 10]
shelter construction is to be
effective. There must also be increased awareness of the probable
extent of the fallout hazard resulting from all-out nuclear war, and
the public must be convinced that the problem is not hopeless, but
can be dealt with effectively through provision of fallout
shelters.
The program recommended would be conducted in a low key of gradually
increasing intensity in three parts:
[Typeset Page 102]
a. A nationally conducted program, using all available communications
media, and working through all agencies of the Federal Government
(the Agricultural Extension Service, etc.) is proposed. In addition
to general information on nuclear effects, the program would urge
that citizens provide themselves with fallout shelters; would
provide wide dissemination of information and methods by which
private citizens may provide in their homes fallout-protection for
themselves and their families (1) by adapting existing cellars or
other structures or (2) by incorporation of family shelter in new
residential construction; and would publicize the Government’s own
program of incorporation of shelters in public buildings, prototype
construction, etc.
-----$6 Millions (annually)
b. Working primarily through adult education programs of the States,
provide courses in “Problems of Living in the Nuclear Age.” These
would be designed to reach at least one person in every family in
America. Generalized courses would be accompanied by personalized
technical advice in planning fallout construction for those who wish
it.
-----$3.5 Millions (first year)
-----$13 Millions (annually thereafter)
c. On a pilot area basis, find and support local leadership in
neighborhood groups. Leadership would be provided with sufficient
professional and other support to organize a community shelter
effort. This program is
[Facsimile Page 11]
regarded as a complement to the research
program in that it would yield data on the extent to which local
participation can be stimulated by this means. It is also regarded
as a complement to the intensive pilot study program of five
representative cities.
-----$3 Millions (first year)
-----$6 Millions (annually thereafter)
$Millions
4. Elements of a Base for Rapid Acceleration $1.5 (annually)
The measures proposed above are designed to promote shelter
construction without extensive financial participation by the
Federal Government. The Committee recognizes, however, the
possibility that these measures may be ineffective and that the
Government might later wish to initiate a shelter program on an
accelerated basis. Many of the other recommended measures will
assist in preparing a base for rapid expansion, but in addition it
is believed that specific attention should be given to the
preparation of a “shelf” of plans and information which might save
months of delay in an emergency.
Specific items proposed are:
(1) Identification of materials, equipment and manpower
-----$1 Million (annually)
[Typeset Page 103]
(2) Preparation and maintenance of standby orders and
organization
-----$0.5 Million (annually)
5. Incorporation of shelter in civilian Federal buildings
The Committee agrees that Federal example is an indispensable element
in any combination of measures designed to stimulate State, local
government, and private spending for fallout shelters.
$Millions
a. New Construction $6.5 (annually)
Projections of new Federal construction activity (including the Post
Office construction program, but excluding military construction)
indicate a potential level of about 125,000 shelter spaces annually
at an average cost of $52 per shelter space. This assumes
utilization of new buildings for community shelter
[Facsimile Page 12]
where practicable,
thereby setting an example to local Government and business, and
avoiding charges of favored treatment for Federal employees.
$Millions
b. Modification of Existing Federal Buildings $90.6 (3 year
program)
$30.2 (annually)
Federal example is as important in providing shelters in existing
buildings as in construction of new buildings, since it is hoped
that a large part of all fallout shelter can be provided through
renovation and alteration of existing structures.
The program proposed at this time is limited to provision of
community fallout shelter in existing Post Offices on a 3-year
schedule. Based on an average of 2 shelter spaces for every full
time postal employee, and an average weighted cost of $113 per
shelter space, the total program would cost approximately $90.6
million. Annual rate, $30.2 million for 3 years.
6. Incorporation of Fallout Shelters in Military Construction5
The Committee believes that an effective Federal program must include
selective shelter construction at military installations. In the
absence of such action it is very unlikely that private individuals,
corporations and local governments could be induced to finance their
own shelter construction. Emphasis in the programs proposed is on
military facilities whose location and function is such as to make
them most effective as an example to the general public. However,
the proposed
[Typeset Page 104]
programs have also been designed to contribute to meeting
military operational needs.
Selective incorporation of fallout shelter in military construction
is proposed to include: public access buildings such as
headquarters, new public quarters and hospitals; other facilities
such as air defense and communications facilities and
[Facsimile Page 13]
emergency relocation sites selected according to operational
importance, estimated hazard, and effectiveness in demonstrating
Federal example to the civil population.
|
$Millions |
| a. New Federal military construction |
$20 (annual rate) |
| b. Modification of existing military facilities |
$100 (5 year program) |
|
$20 (annual rate) |
Summary of Costs by Fiscal
Year*
($Millions) |
|
|
1959 |
1960 |
1961 |
| 1. |
a. Research and development |
$6.5 |
$6.5 |
$6.5 |
|
b. Prototype construction |
18.5 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
| 2. |
a. Nationwide survey, sampling basis |
2.0 |
— |
— |
|
b. Nationwide survey |
— |
24.0 |
24.0 |
|
c. Pilot studies |
12.5 |
12.5 |
— |
| 3. |
Public education |
12.5 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
| 4. |
A base for rapid acceleration |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
| 5. |
a. Shelter in new civilian Federal buildings |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
|
b. Shelter in existing civilian Federal buildings |
30.2 |
30.2 |
30.2 |
| 6. |
a. Shelter in new military facilities |
20.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
|
b. Shelter in existing military facilities |
20.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
|
TOTALS |
130.2 |
164.7 |
152.2 |
| * The Bureau of the Budget believes the scope of
the financial outlay proposed is too broad, and that the
total three year program should be restricted to $100
million. |
[Facsimile Page 14]
LEGISLATIVE IMPLICATIONS
Adequate authority is currently contained in the Federal Civil
Defense Act to undertake all measures recommended except the
incorporation of shelters in Federal buildings, whether new or
existing.
The incorporation of shelter in new Federal buildings would require
only that express language be contained in the applicable
[Typeset Page 105]
appropriation acts indicating that the inclusion of protective
construction was contemplated. Modifications of most buildings owned
by the Federal Government could be accomplished in the same manner.
Incorporation of shelter in existing buildings leased by the Federal
Government would, in many cases, require legislative modification
specifically to exempt such expenditures from the provisions of the
Economy Act.
FINANCING AND ADMINISTRATION
The Committee is agreed that responsibility for preparing detailed
budgetary estimates to support the measures proposed should rest
initially with the Federal Civil Defense Administration, except in
the case of new Federal construction or modification of existing
Federal buildings (Measures No. 5 and 6), in which cases the agency
which normally budgets for construction would also budget for the
additional cost of fallout shelter features. The Bureau of the
Budget may later recommend that funds for certain of the detailed
projects be obtained by other Federal agencies.
CONCLUSIONS
(1) The Committee has recommended measures to support the concept of
shelter. Such measures are put forward as first or partial steps
which if adopted, could provide the Federal leadership and example
necessary to stimulate State and local governments and the private
economy to take necessary shelter measures. Unless such stimulation
is truly effective in inducing the provision of nationwide fallout
shelter under local governmental and private auspices, and unless
and until improvements in active defenses are brought about,
estimated civilian casualties, in the event of nuclear attack on the
United States, will not be limited to a level that will permit the
United States to survive as a nation.
[Facsimile Page 15]
(2) With Federal leadership and example, it is believed that the
direct measures proposed can be undertaken in ways that will obtain
the support and cooperation of the American people.
(3) With respect to public information and education, it is believed
that the critical factor bearing on maintaining a low-key program is
not the level of effort expended, but rather the manner in which the
nature and imminence of the threat is handled.
(4) Since the measures point to a partial program, they cannot
engender public overconfidence in shelter, nor yet create a public
passive defense psychology.
(5) Because of the emphasis which will be placed upon improved active
defenses, because of the low key of the public information program
on shelters, and because of existing Congressional and
[Typeset Page 106]
public
attitudes, it is not believed that the measures proposed will cause
Congressional or public reaction prejudicial to higher priority
national security programs; nor that the shelter proposals in and of
themselves will cause a loss of support by our allies. Furthermore,
it is believed that they will not present the posture of the United
States as that of a nation preoccupied with preparations for
war.
(6) The Committee believes that incorporation of fallout shelter in
military construction on a selective basis is vital, not only for
the protection of military personnel, but as an example to the
civilian population.
(7) The measures recommended must be regarded frankly as
experimental. If satisfactory progress in shelter construction is
not achieved as a result of these measures, consideration may
[Facsimile Page 16]
need to
be given at a later date to additional inducements which might be
resorted to on a progressive scale as required. Such inducements
could include: (a) requirement of shelters as a condition for
Government loan guarantees under all existing programs, (b)
low-interest loans for shelter construction, (c) rapid tax
amortization, (d) other incentives, including matching grants by the
Federal Government.
Respectfully submitted,
- Lewis E.
Berry,
Chairman
Federal Civil Defense
Administration
- William E.
Carey
Bureau of the Budget
- Vincent P.
Rock
Office of Defense
Mobilization
- Col. James E.
McHugh
Department of Defense
- Robert L.
Corsbie
Atomic Energy Commission
