Office of the Historian

78. Memorandum From the Director of Intelligence and Research (Cumming) to the Acting Secretary of State1

Washington, October 11, 1957.

SUBJECT

  • Information on Soviet Earth Satellite

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Calculations based on a weight of 184 pounds for the satellite proper suggest that the final stage (satellite and housing, both orbiting) might have an empty weight of a little more than 400 pounds. It would be possible to orbit a mass of this size with the rockets currently estimated for the Soviet 700-mile missile. It would not be necessary to have higher thrust rockets, such as those used in an ICBM, but the USSR could have used such rockets. A feasible design for Sputnik could be directly adapted to a surface-to-surface missile capable of sending a sizeable warhead 3,000–3,500 miles.

Subsequent Soviet earth satellites are expected to be heavier and more instrumental. In March 1957, the IAC estimated that a satellite vehicle possessing substantial reconnaissance capabilities of military value probably could be orbited by the USSR in the period 1963-1965. There has not yet been any change in this estimate in the intelligence community, but I venture to say that if a second Sputnik is orbited in the near future, this date might well be 1960.

  1. Source: Department of State, Central Files, 761.00/10–1157. Secret.↩