450. Memorandum From the Secretary of State’s Special Assistant for Intelligence (Cumming) to the Under Secretary of State (Herter)1
SUBJECT
- Intelligence Note: The Government Crisis in Laos
The failure of Katay Sasorith’s attempt to form a government based on the Nationalist and Independent parties creates the prospect of a prolonged governmental crisis in Laos. The longer it continues, the less likely it will be that its resolution will provide a stable government resistant to further concessions to the Communist Pathet Lao.
In the National Assembly vote on 20 June, Katay fell short of the required two-thirds majority by a single vote (18–8–2). Among the factors contributing to the adverse vote were:
- (1)
- the refusal of the small democratic Party of the Voravong family to join the government because of opposition to Phoui Sananikone, leader of the Independent Party, who was designated as Minister of National Defense;
- (2)
- the firm stand taken on the Pathet Lao issue in Katay’s policy statement,2 which cemented the opposition of the National Union Party of Bong Souvannavong;
- (3)
- miscalculation by Katay of the behavior of a few deputies.
The Crown will reportedly next designate Bong as formateur in the confident expectation he would fail and thereby improve the chances that Phoui would subsequently succeed. The outgoing Prime Minister, Souvanna Phouma, is another possible future choice. In view of Phoui’s alignment with Katay in adopting a relatively firm position on the Pathet Lao issue, Crown Prince Savang personally favors Phoui. However, the general Lao desire to achieve a “final settlement” with the Pathet Lao might make it easier for Souvanna (who has shown greater flexibility and willingness to compromise) to win Assembly approval.
Any government will have to be a coalition, and the longer the crisis continues, the more likely it will be that the present tentative harmony between the Nationalist and Independent parties will deteriorate and that Bong’s neutralist National Union Party will have to [Page 937] be included in the cabinet. Other possible solutions (particularly if the hiatus is protracted) include an effort by the Crown Prince to form a government himself or a resort to Prince Petsarath, despite the royal family’s opposition to his resumption of an active political role.
Future formateurs are unlikely to repeat Katay’s apparent error of formulating a program implying that the Royal Government would not consider further concessions until the Pathet Lao has demonstrated good faith by disbanding its military units and allowing restoration of the Royal Government’s administration in the northern provinces.
A similar memorandum has been addressed to the Secretary.3
- Source: Department of State, Laos Files: Lot 63 D 3, 361.2 Cabinet (1956–1958). Secret. Drafted by William C. Hamilton, Division of Research for the Far East, Office of the Special Assistant for Intelligence.↩
- Summaries of this speech are in telegrams 2109 and 2162 from Vientiane, June 12 and 20, neither printed. (Ibid., Central Files, 751J.00/6–1257 and 751J.00/6–2057, respectively)↩
- Not found in Department of State files.↩