Foreign Relations of the United States, 1955–1957, Suez Crisis, July 26–December 31, 1956, Volume XVI

522. Special National Intelligence Estimate¹

SNIE 30–6–56

Washington, November 6, 1956.

UK-FRENCH MILITARY INTENTIONS IN EGYPT

The Problem

To estimate whether the British and French intend to expand the area of ground operations beyond the immediate area of the Suez Canal.

The Estimate

1. We believe that the UK government probably did not intend, and does not now intend, to expand military action beyond the immediate area of the Suez Canal.

2. The French almost certainly wish to go further than the British but, being unable to act independently of the British, will follow the latter’s policy.

3. The course of event might operate to change this intention—e.g., if UK and French forces along the canal are severely harassed by the Egyptians, and, possibly, the Sweetwater Canal is blocked.²

4. It seems to us more probable that events will act to restrict UK and French military operations to the Suez Canal area, and possibly to curtail them below present intentions. These events include: (a) the recent Soviet threat to use force, (b) the large and growing popular opposition in Britain to the entire venture, and (c) the pressure of world opinion as shown both in the UN and elsewhere.³

1. Source: Department of State, INR–NIE Files. Secret. According to a note on the cover sheet, “The following intelligence organizations participated in the preparation of this estimate: The Central Intelligence Agency and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and The Joint Staff.” This estimate was concurred in by the Intelligence Advisory Committee on November 6. “Concurring were the Special Assistant, Intelligence, Department of State; the Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Army; the Director of Naval Intelligence; the Director of Intelligence, USAF; and the Deputy Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff. The Atomic Energy Commission Representative on the IAC, and the Assistant Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation, abstained, the subject being outside of their jurisdiction.”
2. The Sweetwater Canal, which runs from the Nile River to Ismailia, is the source of fresh water for the entire canal area. [Footnote in the source text.]
3. A memorandum by Charlton Ogburn (R/DRN), entitled “DRN Comments on ONE’s Memorandum Entitled ‘UK-French Military Intentions in Egypt’”, takes exception to paragraph 4, concluding “that the British and French may very well be drawn into operations in the Delta regardless of their present preferences.” (Department of State, INR Files: Lot 58 D 776, Middle East Crisis 1956 (Arab-Israeli Crisis))