274. Annex to Watch Committee Report No. 3211
SC
05591/56
Washington, September 27,
1956.
CONCLUSIONS ON BRITISH-FRENCH INTENTIONS TO EMPLOY FORCE AGAINST EGYPT
Anglo-French military action against Egypt in the immediate future is unlikely unless Egypt should offer some extreme provocation.
The following are the more significant factors considered by the Watch Committee in reaching its conclusion:
- 1.
- The Anglo-French appeal to the UN that Egypt’s “unilateral action” in the Canal Zone is an infringement of the Convention of 1888, and the Egyptian counter-appeal that “some nations, especially the United Kingdom and France,” have committed action inconsistent with the UN Charter.
- 2.
- British and French statements that, while all efforts will be made to avoid war, the right to use force must be reserved.
- 3.
- French concern over the arrival of Soviet submarines in the Mediterranean; no information has been obtained on these submarines for the past ten days.
- 4.
- The status of British-French military forces:
- a.
- The absence of major British and French military movements in the Mediterranean area during the past week; the continued stand-by status of the 3rd Infantry Division in England and the presence of the French 7th Rapid Mechanized and the 10th Airborne Divisions in Algeria and of the British 10th Armored Division in Libya.
- b.
- The absence of a concentration of amphibious and airborne lift at Cyprus, and some evidence that the French build-up there has been halted.
- 5.
- Redeployment by mid-September from the Sinai to the Canal Zone and the Cairo area of all the Egyptian armor except one armored group and possibly one regiment of tanks: Although Egypt still has 34,000 men in the Sinai, these defensive moves against British-French attack have weakened Egyptian defenses in that area.
- Source: CIA Files. Top Secret; Noforn; Limited Distribution.↩