751J.00/6–1954: Telegram
The Chargé at Saigon (McClintock) to the Department of State
2830. Repeated information Paris 1009, Bangkok 200, Geneva 250, Hanoi and Vientiane unnumbered. Following from Rives on consultation Saigon re possible military and political developments Laos:
- 1.
Military situation north Laos will remain stationary and that in south favorable if no more French troops withdrawn.
However, position liable change rapidly in event Tonkin delta lost. This would release at least five Viet Minh divisions any one of which would suffice conquest Laos at least as far south as Thakhek.
- 2.
Political scene outwardly quiet though could also change over night. Prime Minister expects leave for Paris economic talks prior end June. King and Crown Prince due leave for France end June and early July (King going for health).
These departures leave Laos without sole effective leader at what might be crucial period. Rives does not feel departures King and Crown Prince have special significance though that of Prime Minister [Page 1722] believed unfortunate in view present absence at Geneva of Foreign Minister, second most effective member government.
- 3.
- From recent statements by Lao Prime Minister it appears he is tired of job and ready be replaced. Desires post at Paris or Washington (this remarkably similar desires Buu Loc).
- 4.
- Though Katay Sasorith, former Finance Minister and principal opponent Prime Minister from south, has lost ground, Prince Boun Oum of south Laos potential troublemaker. Latter dislikes Crown Prince, resentful of treatment since giving up claim to Lao throne, and presently very active with militia south Laos. According French source, he could try seize power but this deemed doubtful and with slight chance success.
- 5.
- From all Legation contacts comes feeling that return Petsarath, half brother Prime Minister Souvanna Phouma and now voluntary exile Thailand, would be welcome if he agreed behave and act for good of Laos, instead of fight ruling family. Could easily become Prime Minister with greater popular support than accorded Souvanna Phouma.
- 6.
- French high representative has stated French Forces Laos would not interfere government change if desire obviously national. However, if coup attempted by small clique or Viet Minh, French Union troops would take action protect present government.
Though possible events listed above of importance Laos and Southeast Asia, it must be noted only relatively minute portion Lao population aware of and interested in developments. Apathy is general rule save among few government leaders who themselves are dependent on and desirous of aid and advice France and US.