751G.00/5–1254: Telegram
The Chargé at Saigon (McClintock) to the Department of State
[Received 12:59 p.m.]
2363. Repeated information Paris 828, London 61, Geneva 95, Hanoi 445. In informal conversation with Consul Hanoi over weekend immediately following fall Dien Bien Phu, General Cogny and French delegate Compain have indicated preliminary opinion that if Viet Minh were as badly hurt as French hope and believe they were at Dien Bien Phu and if rainy season comes on in full force on time or early, Viet Minh will not be able to mount their offensive in delta until October. Should this prove to be the case, Cogny believes that he will be able to prepare defenses Hanoi and Haiphong and perhaps connecting link with some confidence withstand Viet Minh attack provided, he underscores, reinforcements are made available to him. He believes that reinforcements on scale he requires do not presently exist in Indochina.
On other hand, should Viet Minh not be as badly hurt as French believe and should full force rainy season be delayed, situation Hanoi and delta will be exceedingly grave.
In Saigon, De Jean estimates that Cogny has good chance to hold the delta provided two groupes mobiles from other forces Indochina are made available immediately. Should Viet Minh attack in force two [Page 1537] more groupes mobiles would be required for Cogny as minimum reinforcements necessary.1
- Telegram 659 from Hanoi, May 13, contained additional information on the military situation as viewed by General Cogny. (751G.00/5–1354)↩