763.00/11–2552: Telegram
No. 834
The United States High Commissioner
for Austria (Thompson) to the Department of
State
1428. Although polit truce has prevailed since Govt reformed fol budget crisis, every move made by coalition partners is with view to elections which both parties regard as decisive for Aust’s immed [Page 1809] future. Net result of this truce has been outward calm, with coalition presenting more united front to its detractors, and inward stagnation in which only most routine of Govt functions are carried out.
In conversations “for the record” both parties insist that coalition will continue, with relatively few changes even in Cabinet posts; express confidence in their election prospects; and profess to be concerned mainly over probable losses by coalition partner to right or left, respectively.
Socialists appear to have reconciled themselves to some gains by Commies in popular vote. They say that loss of one or two Parliamentary seats to “peoples opposition” wld make no real difference, although they admit that increase of Commie deputies to eight (number required to introduce legislation) might seriously hamper orderly functioning of Parliament. While they find some justification for their confidence in recent local elections in 32 Steiermark communities, in which they held on to 44 percent of the vote as compared to 29 percent for Peoples Party, 11 for VDU, 12 for non-party independents and 4 for Commies (44, 38, 7, 7, 4 percent respectively, in 50), there is nevertheless undercurrent fear that Commie gains may be sufficient to inhibit extraordinary resistance which workers have for so many years maintained against Sov and Commie pressures in lower Aust and Vienna. There is also corollary fear that any appreciable Commie gains will encourage Sovs to extend larger and more overt support to their Aust stooges for the achievement of Sov aims.
Peoples Party leaders have similarly reconciled themselves to some losses to VDU. They have, however, regained considerable confidence from popular response in rightist circles to firm stand by PP against Socialist demands in recent budget crisis. Also, recent PP Party convention at St. Polten demonstrated that party organization in Lower Aust was intact and spirits good. This is evident despite fact that some PP leaders in Sov zone, sensitive to recent increase in Sov intimidation moves are urging federal party leadership to go slow on electioneering mtgs, demonstrations, parades, etc., in Sov Zone, saying they will get out vote without such manifestations, and it wld therefore be preferable to avoid compromising their supporters with Sovs.
It appears on whole that both parties have maintained their hold on electorate in Sov Zone. Unfortunately, this may not be true in Western provinces. It is there that inconveniences of a “friendly” occupation have weighed most heavily, without recompense of patriotic resistance which aids residents of Sov Zone to bear greater risk and sterner burdens. It is there too that impatience with endless procrastinations and unending compromises inherent in coalition [Page 1810] has reached its height, as has normal polit desire to see change of regime which has been in power for seven years. These factors, coupled with freedom to attack coalition and occupation powers without inhibitions evident in Sov Zone, have led to increasingly articulate and often irresponsible opposition by VDU, splinter parties, non-party groups and large majority of independent press.
Whether this discontent is sufficiently strong to turn voters away from two big parties remains to be seen. It already looms large enough in PP thinking, however, for serious consideration to be given for first time in post-war era to possible inclusion of VDU in coalition if PP strength shld fall below that of Socialists (Embtel 1410 Nov 221). Most PP leaders are convinced of necessity of coalition with Socialists, but they are equally convinced of necessity to maintain rightist dominance in such coalition. Socialists have not indicated what their attitude wld be towards inclusion in coalition of party to whose aims they are basically opposed. They have, however, paid VDU compliment of springing energetically to its defense when Sovs were reported to have banned its activities in East Aust (Embtel 1375, Nov 192).
Further evidence of traditional Aust “reinsurance” is found in plan of Aust Industrial Federation to divide its campaign contribution—some 90 percent to PP and 10 percent to VDU–Aktion list.
VDU–Aktion group has been quick to capitalize on circumstances outlined above, and are attempting to give impression that nothing much is left but to count their votes. They are modest enough not to claim a plurality, but insist they will have minimum of 25 seats, with more optimistic forecasts ranging up to 35.
Effect of any such success by VDU–Aktion will depend in large measure upon development of this amorphous group during electoral campaign. Merger with Aktion has given it a more respectable cast, while incidentally ensuring that voters in opposition or coalition will have no real choice except VDU or Commie ticket.
Aktion may exert moderating influence on VDU, but there will be some temptation at least to cling to Pan-Ger, pro-Nazi line which has dominated VDU propaganda in past. If this attitude shld be intensified, and VDU–Aktion shld then achieve appreciable success, immed repercussions on both domestic and fon policies of [Page 1811] Aust Govt can be expected, regardless of whether VDU–Aktion is actually included in coalition.
Of more direct concern to us wld be anticipated repercussions in US Zone, particularly Land Salzburg, where VDU has taken especially virulent anti-US line for some time past. Other Parties there have apparently felt impelled frequently to join in this anti-Amer propaganda, at least to extent of indiscriminate criticism of US occupation policies and troop behavior, and thus far there seems no inclination on part of weak and divided PP leadership in Salzburg to take any other line. Despite relatively high voting strength in urban Salzburg, Socialist Party there appears to have less impact on public opinion than others, and is more restrained attitude re Austro-US questions has generally gone unnoticed in welter of PP, VDU, and independent press broadsides against US.
To sum up, there is prospect of some Commie gains in election, but at same time grounds for hoping increase will not be appreciable. Socialist Party is well organized and is prepared to wage energetic campaign, particularly in Sov Zone. Big question is whether PP will lose important segments of vote to VDU–Aktion. Answer may lie in energy and skill with which PP conducts campaign. Other important factors will be effective leadership and organization, as illustrated on one hand by situation Upper Aust, where PP appear actually to have regained some ground lost to VDU in Presidential election, and on other by Land Salzburg where VDU strength continues increase at expense of weak and unorganized PP.
- Telegram 1410 reported opposition on the part of both major Austrian political parties to an announcement of a proposed study of Austrian banks resulting from the dollar diversion scandal and evaluated the effect of such an announcement on the pending election. (863.14/11–2252)↩
- Telegram 1375 reported Soviet actions to prohibit VDU activities in the Soviet Zone in Austria. (763.00/11–1952)↩