National Intelligence Estimate
Vulnerability of the Soviet Bloc to Economic Warfare 2
To estimate the vulnerability of the Soviet bloc to economic warfare.[Page 1920]
The term “economic warfare” as applied in this paper covers the offensive use in peacetime of measures to diminish or neutralize the war potential of the Soviet bloc*
The extent to which in the event of war the resources of conquered territories could be effectively utilized and the extent to which they would represent a net gain to the bloc is a problem beyond the scope of this paper. The absence of military operations is assumed as a part of the terms of reference.
Since China is engaged in military operations against United Nations forces in Korea, it is necessary to assess the effect of economic warfare upon China under the existing circumstances.
The measures considered available to the Western Powers to deny exports to the Soviet bloc include the following: export and import licensing, trade manipulation, preclusive buying, black listing, foreign funds control, and the denial to the Soviet bloc of access to non-Soviet maritime and air facilities. The effects of blockade and of the use of the navicert and ship warrant systems are not considered in this paper under the term economic warfare since these measures are usually not employed except in a state of war.
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Chinese Military Capabilities.
6. The effect of a program of economic warfare against China requires special consideration since China is actually engaged in military operations of major importance. The effect of economic warfare alone would not be a decisive factor in limiting Chinese military capabilities. Combined with the present drain caused by the Korean war, however, economic warfare would substantially reduce Chinese military capabilities (though not to the extent of critically disrupting current tactical operations) and might ultimately affect the Korean war itself. Unless the Soviet Union were engaged in supplying major campaigns elsewhere, it would have the capability, despite certain stringencies in its economy, of supplying China’s essential military requirements, but it is uncertain how much the flow of Soviet supplies to China could be stepped up without creating critical transportation difficulties. The [Page 1921] effect of these difficulties together with the drain caused by the Korean war might, conditioned upon the degree of resistance, exert a restraining influence upon Chinese plans for further expansion in Southeast Asia or might significantly hamper the execution of such plans if they were put into operation.
7. The industrial centers of China which are largely the product of Western capitalism are peculiarly dependent upon the West for raw materials, for supplies, and for industrial spare parts, and, indeed, even for the maintenance of some of the barest essentials of an industrial type of society. A program of economic warfare, by depriving these centers of their imports, would consequently have a serious effect on their economy and would increase the problems of internal control there. In addition, a well enforced program of economic warfare would make Communist China more dependent on the very limited Chinese rail facilities connecting with the USSR. Such a program would have increasingly serious effects. It would hamper current industrial production, retard industrial development and might seriously limit China’s ability to sustain large-scale military operations. If continued for a long enough time, it might even threaten the internal stability of the regime.
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- For another extract of this document, which deals mostly with the Soviet Union and its Eastern European Satellites, see vol. i. p. 1046.↩
- According to a note on the cover sheet, “The intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and the Joint Staff participated in the preparation of this estimate. All members of the Intelligence Advisory Committee have given their concurrence to the estimate. This paper is based on information available on 15 February 1951.”↩
- The Soviet bloc is defined as: the USSR, China, Albania. Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Eastern Germany, Hungary, Poland, and Rumania. The vulnerability of Korea, Outer Mongolia, and certain Communist-controlled areas in Southeast Asia is not considered because of the relative insignificance of the economies in these areas; however, it is assumed that economic warfare measures will also apply against these regions. [Footnote in the source text.]↩