793.00/8–1551: Telegram
The Consul General at Hong Kong (McConaughy) to the Secretary of State
[Received August 15—1:23 p. m.]
650. ConGen contacts on Kwangtung principally Catholic priests coming out and persons with guerrilla connections give picture of diminishing overt resistance there. Guerrillas for most part said to be lying low as action bring prompt and heavy retaliation. At same time there is evidence Commies having increasing difficulty with disaffection and corruption among lower cadres and not infrequently find it necessary take action against party members. Possibly authentic directive published in Hua Chiao Jih Pao August 1 said to have been issued by Tseng Shing-hsien, CCP Comite warns [Page 1788] against possibility of Nationalist invasion of mainland with US assistance and exhorts cadres to intensify campaign against bandits and purge local persons who lack popular support. It is quite credible Commies in Kwangtung worried over a possible US supported offensive action as result publicity given statements by prominent Amers advocating such action against mainland, . . . .
Info hangs on Kwangsi report guerrillas there under heavy pressure. Recent arrival from west Kwangsi told ConGen informant that guerrillas that area split by current Commie suppression drive into three separate groups and short both food and ammunition. South Kwangsi guerrilla leader who arrived month ago told ConGen his small force just able maintain self in mountains but not expand. Others in frequent touch with new arrivals from Kwangsi pessimistic regarding guerrillas future. Former Governor of Kwangsi Huang Hsu-chu quoted by reliable source as saying it is folly to plan in terms of guerrillas at this stage. While not all observers as discouraged as Huang opinion more and more gen that only direct, continuous Amer aid can enable guerrillas to survive as active anti-Commie force. Generally agreed upon fact that main railways and highways of Kwangsi now practically free of guerrilla interference is clear indication of latter’s diminishing influence. While they have by no means been reduced to few thousand as recently claimed in Commie propaganda their numbers and activity certainly not increasing in Kwangsi.
In contrast above picture Hong Kong press past several months has carried large number accounts of alleged sabotage by guerrillas, shooting of Commie cadres and defection military units particularly in Kwangtung and Kwangsi. Nearly all such stories impossible verify and ConGen has maintained skeptical attitude particularly toward those in strongly pro-KMT Hong Kong Shih Pao and Kung Shang Jih Pao whose rather sensational reports have more than once proved without foundation. However, Hong Kong polit advisor who has also been skeptical of such reports, is swinging to view that there is some foundation for belief that there has been flare-up of anti-Commie activity at least in Kwangtung. He told ConGen that Brit observation posts confirmed that large explosion took place Shumchun on August 3 and that press reported guerrillas threw grenades into military depot there and destroyed several hundred drums kerosene, tires and other items.
ConGen still disinclined to believe anti-Commie elements these two provinces becoming more active. Undoubtedly many incidents of sabotage and opposition occur particularly in areas where Commie land program being put into effect but such incidents are not indicative of improvement in guerrilla supply, organization or numbers. Reports [Page 1789] of friction between local Commies and northerners and of Commie anxiety over possible Nationalist invasion are encouraging but have hardly reached stage where they wld lead to frequent defection to guerrillas. Those whom ConGen considers most competent to judge feel that guerrillas fighting losing battle. Unless they receive effective outside aid they will be reduced by end year to small scattered pockets which may be able to survive but can hardly represent more than irritant to Commies. By this time completion of Commie land program will have established polit controls in countryside similar to those of north Chi which wld make it much more difficult for resistance groups to operate.
Pouched Taipei.