690D.91/11–1651: Telegram
The Ambassador in India (Bowles) to the Secretary of State
1770. Have just completed calls on all Chiefs of Mission, and in the course of each conversation I asked for an opinion on who wld win honest and uninfluenced plebiscite in Kashmir. Each without exception stated that India wld win; margins varied from three to two to four to one. Many of these mission chiefs or their staffs visited [Page 1905] Kashmir recently. Amer press here, several of whom have recently visited Kashmir, also agree with this analysis.
Emb estimates are more modest as to margin but no disagreement over likelihood that India wld win under conditions likely to prevail.
Much of India’s improved position undoubtedly due to Sheik Abdullah’s land and tax reforms which have won much support among peasants.