McGhee Files: Lot 53D468
Memorandum by the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern, South Asian, and African Affairs (McGhee) to the Secretary of State
Subject: Kashmir—Current Situation.
During August there have been no significant changes in the Kashmir situation. Nehru and Liaquat Ali Khan have ended their exchange of telegrams, but both Governments have now issued “White Papers”, India charging Pakistan with aggressive intentions, and Pakistan charging India with not having accepted the partition of British India. There have been minor changes in troop dispositions in Kashmir and the Punjab border. Contrary to Indian statements Pakistan intelligence reports that Indian Army strength in Kashmir has been increased during the past three months by eight battalions (about 6500 men). It also appears that the bulk of the Pakistan Army units in Kashmir are now deployed within Pakistan. Orders have been issued on both sides that patrols be held back in order to avoid the possibility of an incident.
Dr. Graham saw Nehru on August 26, and it is likely that they discussed demilitarization details. He flew to Karachi on August 27. We are not in direct touch with him and do not know what he is proposing.
Elections in India-held Kashmir to form a constituent assembly, with the support of the Government of India, and Pakistan opposition to this plan were the immediate causes of rising tension which recently reached an acute stage. The elections are to be held September 10–30. Abdullah’s Government has publicly stated that these elections “shall be the only and final plebiscite”. On August 25 the Indian Deputy Foreign Minister reportedly denied that there had been any Security Council advice against the constituent assembly. The Security Council Resolution of March 21, 1951, stated that “any action that the Assembly might attempt to take to determine the future shape and affiliation of the entire state or any part thereof would not constitute a disposition” of thte state in accordance with the method agreed to by the two parties.
The United Kingdom High Commissioner approached Bajpai with a suggestion that military observers be posted along the Punjab border, and Bajpai’s reception of the suggestion was not favorable. It is likely that a new crisis will come at about the time the elections in Kashmir are completed and Dr. Graham submits his report to the Security Council.