690D.91/7–1751: Telegram
The Ambassador in Pakistan (Warren) to the Secretary of State
priority
50. Emb agrees events likely to fol Dept’s estimated para 2 and 3 Dept’s 44, July 14. If there is communal rioting risk of hostilities is immed.
Spontaneous rally of Pak public opinion, including polit opposition, to Liaquat’s statement given July 15 strengthens his hand in dealing with India. Emb believes he is alert to risks and danger presented by present sitn. He will restrain and discipline his people unless extremists in West Bengal utilize tension arising from troop dispositions to incite communal rioting.
As of today position of Hindu minorities in East Bengal is not cause for immed concern. While daily movement of minorities between East and West Bengal has been accelerated during past 45 days, still there has been a small net inflow of 824 Hindus into East Bengal during this period. However fact that daily movement is numerous cld have immed and dangerous results shld communal rioting break out and large number of Hindus now in East Bengal become terror stricken.
It is Emb’s opinion that any communal disturbances caused by anxieties and tensions growing out of troop dispositions wld be uncontrollable and might extend rapidly across India thru united and central provinces as far as Bombay.
The impact of communal rioting on any considerable scale upon Pak public opinion is unpredictable.
Emb believes both GOI and GOP shld be reminded immed of dangers inherent in this sitn where 12 million Hindus in East Bengal and 40 million Muslims in Ind Union are at mercy of extremists who may be expected take advantage of tensions arising from current mil postures. Whatever the dangers inherent in maneuvers may be with respect to mil coercion directed against Graham Mission and SC’s [Page 1778] efforts for peaceful solution, the risks of widespread massacres in communal rioting are far greater in Emb’s opinion.
As safeguard against possibility of rapid deterioration Emb recommends US take initiative in warning 2 Govts of risks they are running.
Rptd USUN unn, Delhi 11.