690D.91/7–1451: Telegram
The Secretary of State to the Embassy in Pakistan 1
44. Dept exploring prospects preventing violent Pak outbreaks against India before end Graham mission October 1 or thereafter, assuming KNC not convened before that date.
Dept believes GOP presently exerting successful manoeuvres (by curbing provocative official and press statements re Kashmir) to restrain frustrated Pak public from resorting violence, as Govt fears loss favorable world opinion and does not wish jeopardize its chances for SC seat next year. These efforts will continue successful if US, UK and UN can offer occasional tangible evidence basic appreciation for Pak interests and problems; however GOP probably unwilling restrain public indignation if it threatens overturn present Govt, in which case Govt might abandon adherence UN principles and take lead in aggressive moves.
Dept further believes: 1) GOP will be able prevent any violence against India or incursions Kashmir during course Graham mission; 2) Provided SC able rapidly take promising steps fol Graham report, GOP will maintain similar controls next fall; 3) If Graham report produces no workable plan for progress, GOP controls will remain effective provided UN can produce such plans; 4) In case all efforts fail offer hope softening Indian position, GOP late in 1951 or early 1952 will be unwilling and unable to prevent outbreak hostilities with India.
Recent events Iran2 and Turkey indicate deterioration UK prestige Near East with probably similar results in PAK and consequent lessened effectiveness US–UK collaboration re Kashmir.
[Page 1775]FYI only Brit FonOff believed well aware above problems but not yet ready propose solutions.
Emb’s comments urgently requested.
- Sent also to London as telegram 305, to New Delhi as 111, and to New York as 31.↩
- For documentation on Iran, see vol. v, pp. 445 ff.↩