790.00/1–451
Memorandum of Conversation, by Mr. George H. Alexander of the Economic Resources and Security Staff
Subject: Political prospects in South East Asia.
| Participants: | Mr. Lacy, PSA2 |
| Messrs. Armstrong3 and Alexander—ER | |
| Mr. John C. Houston—The White House | |
| Miss Marjorie Belcher—The White House |
The White House officials called at their request to obtain guidance from the Department as to the extent to which the United States may count on the continued availability of South East Asia as a source of critical raw materials.4
Mr. Lacy began the discussion by stating that had the question been asked two months previously he would have replied that the odds were against the Chinese invading South East Asia but that at present the odds are unfortunately in favor of such an invasion. The date upon which the Chinese can be expected to move is, of course, uncertain.
Mr. Lacy emphasized the danger of attempting to prophesy the course of developments but hazarded the guess that China would invade Tonkin.5 This opinion he based particularly upon the disposition of Chinese armies and on moves by American companies familiar with the area. He suggested that Thailand6 might find it in its interest to [Page 2] cooperate with the Chinese and might not need to be invaded. Malaya is likely to be invaded whenever the Chinese feel that they have digested Indo-China and Thailand. If the British are able to hold Malaya, Indonesia7 probably also will remain outside the control of the Chinese. If, however, Malaya falls, Indonesia probably will fall too, either by invasion or through a decision that its future lies in cooperating with the Communists.
When discussing the difficulty of predicting the timing of events Mr. Lacy pointed out that the present Indonesian government might fall any day as a result of the breakdown of negotiations with the Netherlands concerning New Guinea and that the possibility always exists that the Briggs Plan8 will fail in Malaya. He hazarded the guess that Malaya might hold out from two to four months against a full scale invasion.
Mr. Lacy concluded by remarking that the picture was gloomy but gave no cause for hysteria. He did suggest, however, that it would be wise for the United States not to dally in its procurement of strategic materials from the area.
- William S. B. Lacy, Director of the Office of Philippine and Southeast Asian Affairs.↩
- Willis C. Armstrong, Associate Chief, Economic Resources and Security Staff.↩
- Documentation on general U.S. policy with respect to the acquisition of strategic materials from foreign areas is scheduled for publication in volume i.↩
- For additional documentation on the possibility of a Chinese Communist invasion of Tonkin, see pp. 332 ff.↩
- For documentation on U.S. relations with Thailand, see pp. 1594 ff.↩
- For documentation on U.S. relations with Indonesia, see pp. 583 ff.↩
- Reference is to British pacification operations in Malaya under the direction of Lt. Gen. Sir Harold Briggs.↩