661.00/4–2551: Telegram
The Ambassador in the Soviet Union ( Kirk ) to the Secretary of State 1
1869. Pass Defense and CIA. Embassy’s annual report on Soviet intentions is being transmitted with despatch 626, April 25.2
Embassy believes Soviet leaders are still on wave of power position attained in World War II and, in capitalizing thereon for the prosecution of their total war against the free world, are employing separately and in combination political, psychological, economic and military weapons. Politically-psychologically they are concentrating on efforts to mobilize susceptible sentiment among world opinion to exert pressure on free world governments designed to undermine the authority, determination and ability of free world to resist Communist imperialism. Principal instruments such pressure are concurrent emphasis on “peace” campaign and increasing subversive, war of nerves, et cetera, tactics. Economically Soviets continue major emphasis on build-up USSR military economic potential and consolidation to this end of productive capacities satellites. Militarily Soviets have committed to direct aggression military forces of subservient regimes which they have covertly supported.
In our view Soviets intend to exploit possibilities which present themselves to capitalize and intensify their drive toward their imperialist objectives to maximum. Anticipate that they are prepared incur major risks of precipitation global hostilities. At same time they seem anxious avoid direct commitment their major strategic reserve, armed forces of USSR, apparently since they are uncertain successful outcome of prolonged military struggle with free world and believe that by application continued pressures of other types, they will eventually create situation more favorable to engagement their ultimate weapon. In latter connection, however, it is noted, particularly by service attaches, that Soviets could conclude that current period is moment to launch all-out attack. Such conclusion could stem from estimate by Kremlin that (1) their present relative military position is of sufficient superiority to risk all-out effort now or (2) that growing Western defense promises continue indefinitely and that prospects relative improvement Soviet power position foreseeable future virtually nil. In either event and especially [Page 1575] if Soviets convinced free world will inevitably attempt destroy Soviet Communism when able to do so, Soviets might determine to cast die without delay.
Embassy feels Soviets have received setbacks in past 12 months particularly in Korea and through beginnings implementation NAT and that maintenance present uneasy balance and eventual betterment situation in favor of forces of freedom depends in last analysis on determination free nations to remain united and to increase resistance forces rapidly to extent necessary convince politburo military adventure against free world would inevitably be disastrous.
Embassy convinced center gravity malignant danger to US still lies Western Europe but that threats to Asia and Mid-East area, where situation seems most ripe at present for Soviet aggressions, are of serious import.
Department may also wish repeat to London for Gifford and Spofford; Paris for Bruce, Jessup and MacArthur; Bonn for McCloy.