No. 771

761.00/4–1351

Memorandum for the Record, by the Deputy Special Assistant for Intelligence ( Howe )

secret

In the course of discussing other matters with Chip Bohlen,1 he emphasized the attention which should be put upon the further [Page 1571] measures taken by the Russians in collectivization. He says that it is now clearly on the books that the USSR will embark on measures which he describes as being a “proletariatization” of the peasants. The big question, according to Bohlen, is whether the Russians will actually take steps to put it into effect, for if they do it will be seriously disruptive from the standpoint of the economy and will evoke considerable popular opposition, and in the face of these factors may well indicate that the USSR is not in fact planning war in the next two years. If successful in carrying out the intent of the decrees it would mean, of course, a drastic strengthening in the internal control mechanisms.

Bohlen is also concerned that “Washington” is getting too fixed in its views on the USSR and its estimates, tending to treat the Soviet problem as black and white in terms of Soviet intentions and plans. He is, along the same lines, concerned that we do not assume always that the Soviets will understand our intentions as we understand them. As an example of this, he cites the MacArthur change2 which the Soviets would interpret as representing no change in the aggressive intention of the US, but rather a tactical retreat under the pressure of our Allies.

Fisher Howe
  1. Bohlen, Minister in France and Adviser on the U.S. Delegation to the Four-Power Exploratory Talks in Paris on the possible convening of a session of the Council of Foreign Ministers, was in Washington for consultation regarding the Four-Power talks.
  2. The reference here is to President Truman’s relief of General MacArthur from his commands in Korea, Japan, and the Far East on April 11.