700.001/1–351
Memorandum of Conversation, by the Officer in Charge of Polish, Baltic, and Czechoslovak Affairs ( Vedeler ) 2
Subject: Soviet Estimate of International Situation.
| Participants: | A Confidential Source and Mr. Vedeler, EE |
The source reported on a meeting of certain diplomatic representatives from Eastern Europe whom Vishinsky called together on December 14, 1950, the day before his sailing for Europe on the Liberié. Those attending the meeting included Malik; Wierblowski, the head of the Polish Delegation to the General Assembly and Secretary General of the Polish Foreign Office; Katz-Suchy, Permanent Polish Representative to the United Nations; and Outrata, Horvath, and possibly Winiewicz, Czechoslovak, Hungarian and Polish diplomatic representatives to the United States respectively. On that occasion Vishinsky purportedly gave, with high spirits and much optimism, an official estimate of the present international situation and an indication of Soviet intentions relating thereto in essentially the following terms:
There will be no war at this time because we do not intend to go to war and the United States cannot afford to do so. The United States is not in a position to take this step because it is faced with [Page 1523] political and economic disintegration. The isolationist movement is rapidly gaining ground and disunity is spreading. The American people are growing more and more convinced that the United States has no real allies and that they cannot control the situation themselves. The Western Powers have not been able to achieve unity and the recent visit of Attlee to the United States proved a complete failure producing no results. The United States is trying to dominate the countries of Western Europe, which have to give ground to a certain extent because of their internal economic conditions in each case. But they are very much opposed to the present American policy, which they realize would only bring about a catastrophe if pursued to its final conclusion.
The United States is now embarking on a rearmament program but it will not be able to bear the tremendous pressure of mobilization and war economy for more than two years. Events are accordingly working for the Soviet Union and the popular democracies and the revolution is progressing favorably everywhere. The situation in Asia is already beyond American control and developments in Europe will show that the Americans are unable to control the situation there as well. The strength of the USSR and the peoples’ democracies is therefore invincible. We could overcome Western Europe by force of arms at any time, yet this course will not be followed, since we have advanced the slogan of peace and a solution favorable to our cause will come by itself.
It is not certain whether Winiewicz attended this meeting in person or whether he was subsequently informed by Wierblowski of the message given by Vishinsky. In any event, his self-confidence was bolstered after a long period of pessimism, his prevailing mood during the session of the General Assembly. That he had been permitted to share this important confidence made him believe that he was regarded favorably by the Communist authorities and that he was marked as one of the initiates. When he returned to the Embassy at Washington, he was so enthusiastic over the prospect imparted by Vishinsky that he was impelled to pass it along to several members of the Embassy at a long afternoon conference on the subject. With these ideas still in mind he came to the Department a day or so later to present a memorandum on the question of the restitution of looted property from the US Zone in Germany and utilized the occasion to comment on the international situation, apparently in the afterglow caused by the words from Vishinsky.
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Drafted by Vedeler on January 5. Assistant Secretary of State Perkins sent copies of this memorandum to Secretary of State Acheson, Nitze, Matthews, Rusk, Webb, and Jessup on January 8 under cover of the following explanatory memorandum:
“This report on Soviet intentions as imparted to important satellite officials is believed worthy of your attention. The source mentioned is one who has proven accurate in every previous conversation.” (661.00/1–851 and 611.61/1–351)
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