751.00/6–1851: Telegram
The Ambassador in France ( Bruce) to the Secretary of State 1
7868. French election returns reported separately (Embtel 7867)2 point strongly to formation of next govt through combination of third and fourth forces (Socialists, MRP, Radicals, and Independent-Peasants). There may be barest mathematical possibility of rightist coalition combining RGR, non-Gaullist rightists and RPF, but first two of these far more likely to team up with third force for formation first govt of new legislature because of: (1) enmities between these groups and RPF inherited from period of last Assembly and difficulties always attendant upon agreement with movement headed by DeGaulle; (2) fact that campaign maneuvers and propaganda of RPF and govt parties have been very generally directed against each other; and (3) prospect that non-Gaullist rightists who have increased their strength within present coalition and who with RGR will be stronger than Socialists plus MRP, might expect to find coalition with RPF dominated by latter as largest single party. No indication has yet come from Gaullists that they are ready to sacrifice any part of their program in order to participate in govt. RPF Sec Gen Soustelle’s comment has distinct opposition group overtones.
There is some question however whether Socialists choice will be to participate in or merely to support a coalition even non-Gaullist whose right wing is in such relatively strong position. Socialists have called extraordinary party congress for July 4 and 5, presumably to settle this question at last moment before Assembly convenes. Statements issued fol election returns by right wing Socialist Moch and prominent left winger Leon Boutbien revealed former advocating Socialist participation in coalition, but latter only Socialist [Page 394] support. Statements by Queuille and other Radical leaders and prominent Independent Christians indicate that they will work for inclusion Socialists in broad coalition.
Present govt will resign only when officers of new Assembly chosen and that will not take place until several days after new Assembly meets for first time on July 5. Things will have moved quickly if PriMin is designated by President and invested by Assembly his govt formed and successful in first Assembly test before July 14 holiday. Period between elections and convening of Assembly will of course allow some time for inter-party negotiations, but since in French Assembly groups do not exactly coincide with party tickets on which deputies elected there must be prior maneuvering for constitution of these groups and election of their officers.
Conclusion that most likely coalition is one without Gaullists and composed of parties which have worked govts of past four years is not to suggest that there have been swept away the factors of strain that militate against such stability of contrast cabinets and their capacity for agreeing on long term programs or making difficult internatl policy decisions expeditiously. These factors are: (1) small margin of govt’s majority; (2) divergent views and programs of potential partners; and (3) temptation for right wing at later stage to slide over into Gaullist camp.
Extended coalition will need support of all four of its major components, particularly since number of deputies on which coalition can regularly count will not equal totality of non-Communists and non-Gaullists in Assembly. Uncertain elements will include both some overseas deputies and some metropolitan rightists who like their predecessors in last Assembly will refuse support govt if Socialist Party a member. Govt of course at mercy of Socialist swing to opposition such as brought Bidault govt down in June 1950.
Still greater elements of weakness will be disagreements among parties forming or supporting govt particularly as coalition will have to straddle dividing line between parties with working class and trade union support and those representing primarily businessmen and farmers. Disharmony may be increased since electoral gains have been registered by both extremes of potential coalition (Socialist on left and Independent-Peasants on right), whereas gains for Radicals on right center far offset by larger losses for MRP. Manifesto of fourth force published in press June 9 is clear evidence of coming difficulties. Not only does it call for program that is anathema to Socialist (revision of nationalizations, reform of social security, reduction of govt spending, and elevation of Council of Republic to status, comparable to that of Third Republic Senate), but it is signed both by Roger Duchet for Independents and Peasants [Page 395] and by Daladier for RGR. Daladier’s signature indicates that line of division on many issues likely to split Radical Party.
Given divergences of views among partners in centrist coalition, there may gradually build up temptation for its right wing to drop alliance with Socialists and substitute different governing majority by inclusion of Gaullists. Relative numerical strengths of parties will make this most difficult so long as MRP holds out against it. On other hand if French affairs go badly and govt in frequent difficulties there may be trickle of individual deputies shifting from non-Gaullist Assembly groups to Gaullists. Even before close of campaign, Gaullist candidates began attempt to woo others by declaration of welcome to members rival tickets who wished adhere Assembly group which all RPF candidates are pledged to join. Such a development wld both weaken numerical strength of centrist coalition and give Gaullists as largest non-Commie Party greater claims to lead new coalition. It is now much too early to make any predictions as to extent or timing of possible eventual shift toward DeGaulle. In fact opposite may take place, that is, gradual crumbling of supposedly monolithic group of DeGaulle’s compagnons in new Assembly. Fact Gaullists did not reach total they anticipated is initial factor working to undermine their confidence in greater success later on.
In conclusion may be predicted that third and fourth forces will maintain in first govt of new Assembly partnership they had begun in 1949 and continued in election campaign; and comment is in order that—contrary to constant predictions of GP and Gaullists during last years of old Assembly—these partners can point to fact that double opposition was beaten on popular votes as well as in winning of Assembly seats.
- Repeated to London, Rome, and Frankfurt.↩
- Telegram 7867 reported that on the basis of data made available by the French Minister of Interior and with 62 seats still to be allotted, the number of seats to be allotted to the respective French political parties in the forthcoming Assembly on the basis of the national elections were as follows: Communists, 96 seats; Socialists, 96; RGR and Radicals, 85; MRP, 77; Fourth Force, 100; RPF (Gaullists), 107; others, 4 seats. Bruce added that the elections were “quiet and orderly,” and no incidents were reported. (751.00/6–1851)↩