894A.00/9–749: Telegram
The Consul General at Taipei (Macdonald) to the Secretary of State
[Received September 7—7:51 a. m.]
453. Kunming defection started chain of rumors on future of Taiwan. Most recurrent say SCAP will bring forces here October 15 to thwart Communist take-over. Many natives fear army revolt and local massacres and are moving from town. Wealthy Chinese refugees continue to leave island. Provincial government taking many steps buy loyalty troops here such as 100 percent pay increases, etc., etc. Chen Cheng during week made several public statements on local stability and oneness of Taiwan with China but local fears continue to mount. Economy continues stable but with apparent strains. Arrests and police checks on increase.
Taiwanese believe trouble imminent and inevitable. Claim anti-Chinese feeling much greater than February 1947 and bloodbath will be greater. We concur, except for imminence, since many forces would presumably join melee: defecting troops, loyal troops, Communist civilians, Taiwanese independence groups and also pro-Communists, and Chinese mainlanders now here all having separate hatreds, prejudices and purposes. Strength Communist organization still uncertain but in confusion, smart group could grab reins. Any one of several things could start trouble at any one of several times.
Sent Dept 453, repeated Nanking 204.