894A.00/8–3049

The Consul General at Taipei (Macdonald) to the Secretary of State

No. 51

Sir: I have the honor to report that despite the high-sounding statements being made currently by China’s leaders, even now when it is way past the eleventh hour the usual series of military jurisdictional fights and scrambles for power continue in Taiwan. No firm decisions are being made which could be classified as constructive, and all emphasis is being placed on the creation of new and imposing headquarters, new commands, and new advisory commissions.

As has happened in the mainland, this jockeying for position and this emphasis on form rather than substance is undermining the stability of Taiwan and rapidly preparing it for any communist action, from within or without, which may be opportune. Even the local controlled press is making comment on the situation.

[Here follows detailed description of rivalry for power among military leaders on Taiwan.]

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In summary, because of the character of Chen Cheng, combined with the presence here of Chiang Kai-shek, the island of Taiwan, at the very time when every effort should be made to strengthen it internally and externally against communist aggression, appears to be rapidly falling apart at the seams politically, economically, and militarily and ripening for Communist take-over. Even educated Chinese who are well aware that the inevitable never happens in China and that most crises evaporate before they occur, are convinced of Taiwan’s eventual loss, and those so able are laying rapid plans for a further personal retreat from the communists.

Respectfully yours,

John J. Macdonald