800.00 Summaries/9–1249: Circular telegram
The Secretary of State to Certain Diplomatic Offices 1
Estimate of our mil auths on Yugo mil potential in event armed conflict with USSR is that while Sovs cld eventually subjugate Yugo it wld be very big operation and wld be no blitzkreig. In event overt Sov attack, our mil auths believe Yugo Army would effect strategic withdrawal to mountainous core of country where it could maintain large-scale organized defensive action for several months on regular line of battle. If this line were eventually disrupted, our mil believe guerrilla warfare could continue for indefinite period. They point out that in last war Axis was obliged utilize 500,000 troops and several of best generals to oppose Yugo partisan activities and Yugo Army has uninterrupted leadership from days of guerrilla warfare against Axis. At present five Sov divisions are in vicinity of Yugo—two in Aust, two in Hung and one in Rum. Any build-up of Sov forces for offensive wld take some time and wld require at least 20 divisions. Signs of such build-up wld be clear enough before hand over period of about six weeks even if this concentration were conducted at most rapid pace. Sovs could expect only negligible help from their satellite armed forces which lack leaders, equipment and training. In fact our mil auths feel Yugo Army could most effectively dispose of all Sov satellite forces on its periphery if it had to deal with them alone. It is US mil opinion that Albania constitutes no problem for Yugo [Page 946] Army and that even while engaged in repulsing full-scale Sov offensive, Yugos could occupy Albania with little difficulty.2
- This circular information telegram was sent to Belgrade, Berlin, Bucharest, Budapest, London, Moscow, Paris, Praha, Rome, Sofia, Trieste, Vienna, and Warsaw.↩
- This circular telegram incorporates the conclusions of a meeting held on September 6 between Assistant Secretary of State Perkins, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Thompson, and other officers of the Department of State with ranking members of the Eurasian Section, G–2, Army General Staff. Roy Melbourne’s memorandum of the meeting is included in file 760H.61/9–649.↩