860D.5045/8–2349: Telegram
The Ambassador in the Soviet Union (Kirk) to the Secretary of State
2135. Viewed from Moscow, current Finnish strikes1 evidently represent major Communist effort since establishment Fagerholm Government to discredit, destroy it with minimum objectives of disrupting economy and bringing Communist back into Government—where they can more advantageously work for subsequent destruction [Page 441] Finnish Democracy—and possible maximum of producing pretext for direct Soviet intervention and Communist regime.
Though Soviet press treatment Finland has not changed perceptibly recent months and recent coverage gave no advance hint magnitude present labor troubles, Kremlin doubtless feels current economic difficulties have created situation susceptible exploitation. Key Communist-dominated unions have therefore been committed to all-out endeavor reminiscent recent Australian coal and London dock strikes.
As pointed Embtel 790, March 30,2 difficult to see how Soviets can consistently overtly intervene unless perhaps on pretext endangerment of their troops and installations (Porkkala area) but even this would presumably be covered peace treaty provisions which do not lend themselves unilateral Soviet action. Even though Norway and Denmark now formally committed NAT we would expect Moscow’s strong desire keep Sweden neutral would continue influence Soviets proceed cautiously with regard Finland unless as is just possible Kremlin convinced either that Sweden already committed to Western camp even though only informally or that Soviet action to take over Finland now would so scare Swedes that their neutrality complex would actually be solidified.
On balance, we are still inclined to view that Soviets do not contemplate direct action Finland now regarding current efforts Finnish Communists with Soviet sub-rosa assistance as in nature probing action although on major scale.
Sent Department 2135, repeated Helsinki 70, Stockholm 52.