760D.61/3–3049: Telegram

The Chargé in the Soviet Union ( Kohler )1 to the Secretary of State

secret

790. Though Soviet press comment on Finland has become considerably shriller and more hostile last few weeks, it is still our considered [Page 439] opinion, recent rumors notwithstanding, that no overt move will be undertaken by Kremlin at this time.

We still base this estimate on:

(a)
Clear inability local Communist forces to stage seizure of power similar to that engineered Czechoslovakia without positive help from abroad (i.e. Soviet Union); and
(b)
Belief Moscow will refrain from such action due general world political-prestige considerations and in particular desire keep Sweden out of Atlantic Pact (mytels 304, February 7 and 2178, September 292). Recent indications Swedish public opinion have made it rather clearer than before that any move against Finland would probably promptly drive Swedes into Western alliance.

Apart from economic pressure and possible though unlikely repudiation last year’s reduction reparations total, it is difficult to see just how Moscow could unilaterally bring pressure to bear upon Finland by reference existing treaties. Mutual assistance pact negotiated last April3 does not provide adequate pretext and though Soviet press has lately been charging violations peace treaty4 terms, article 35 treaty does not appear permit action based such charges by Soviet Govt alone.

We therefore believe Soviet campaign against Finland will continue confined its present scope of propaganda war of nerves, together possibly with development “tougher” attitude reparations performance and general economic pressure. But even latter cannot be pushed too far without impairing reparations deliveries.5

Sent Department 790, repeated Helsinki 23, Stockholm 24.

Kohler
  1. Foy D. Kohler, Counselor of the Embassy in the Soviet Union.
  2. Neither printed.
  3. For text of the Treaty of Friendship, Co-operation, and Mutual Assistance between Finland and the Soviet Union, signed at Moscow, April 6, 1948, see United Nations Treaty Series, vol. 48, pp. 150–161.
  4. For text of the Treaty of Peace with Finland, signed at Paris, February 10, 1947, see ibid., pp. 203–303.
  5. In his telegram 90, March 31, from Helsinki, not printed, Minister Warren commented upon the telegram printed here. Warren, who reported having been informed by Acting Foreign Minister Takki that Finnish-Soviet political and economic relations continued on a “correct basis”, saw no reason to amend the analysis and conclusions contained in despatch 49, March 10, from Helsinki (660D.6131/3–3149). Despatch 49 comprised a 16–page survey of Finnish-Soviet relations for the year 1948. The survey concluded that “the striking feature of the implementation of Soviet policy toward Finland had been its tolerance of and even acquiescence in facts that could not have been pleasing to the hotspurs of international communism in the Soviet Union or elsewhere”. The Legation in Helsinki surmised that Soviet authorities were prepared to concede that conditions for rapid progress from capitalism to communism were less propitious in Finland than in other Eastern European countries. Soviet leaders appeared to believe that they ultimately would inherit Finland in any case, and in the meanwhile they could afford, in the absence of a security menace on their northwest frontier, to defer the application of revolutionary methods in Finland (760D.61/3–1049).