Subject: Consideration of Western Hemisphere Petroleum
Supply Problem by the Inter-American Defense Board
The Acting Secretary of State encloses for the information of the Embassy
certain papers on petroleum showing the consideration that has been
given to the petroleum problem of the Western Hemisphere by the
Inter-American Defense Board. The papers were made available to the
Department by the U.S. Delegation to the Inter-American Defense
Board.
The State–Army–Navy–Air Force Coordinating Committee has approved a paper
which recommended that every American Embassy in the Western Hemisphere,
the Inter-American Defense Board, and all joint defense boards involving
the United States and other American States be informed concerning the
petroleum supply problem of the hemisphere, especially as regards its
security aspects. Enclosure 1 contains the paper which the United States
Delegation presented to the Inter-American Defense Board in accordance
with the SANACC recommendation.
Enclosure 2 indicates the action which the Board has taken.
These enclosures, together with the circular airgram dated February 17,
19481 on the general
petroleum situation, will bring the Embassy up-to-date on the hemisphere
petroleum problem both with respect to its peacetime and security
aspects.
[Enclosure 1]
Appendix I of IADB Minutes of February 24, 1948
restricted
necessity for developing additional supplies of
oil in the western hemisphere for hemispheric defense
The provision of adequate supplies of oil for the defense of the
Western Hemisphere is one of the most important and difficult
problems facing the American nations today.
The result of World War II was a tremendous drain on United States
petroleum resources. We completely used up 1 million barrels a day
of reserve productive capacity which was available to us at the
beginning of the war. During the war, United States average
production of crude petroleum increased from 3,606,157 barrels per
day to 4,871,099 barrel per day. Since the war, worldwide demand for
petroleum has increased to the unprecedented figure of 9,000,000
barrels per day of which 5,600,000 barrels per day or 62% is
currently being provided from United States resources.
Between 1939 (prewar) and 1947 (postwar) the relative increase or
decrease in proved reserves and daily production of Western
Hemisphere countries is as follows: (See Enclosure I)2
|
Proved Resources (bbls.) |
Daily Production
|
|
United States |
Increased |
4,577,000,000 |
Increased |
1,616,600 |
B/D |
Mexico |
Increased |
300,000,000 |
Increased |
37,500 |
“ |
Venezuela |
Increased |
5,500,000,000 |
Increased |
622,000 |
“ |
Colombia |
Increased |
100,000,000 |
Increased |
3,000 |
“ |
Peru |
Decreased |
50,000,000 |
Decreased |
2,000 |
“ |
Brazil |
Increased |
5,000,000 |
Increased |
300,000 |
“ |
Argentina Chile |
Increased |
25,000,000 |
Increased |
8,000 |
“ |
This means that the United States is expending its non-replaceable
petroleum resources at a rate vastly greater than that of any other
country or any other oil producing area in the world. What effect is
this going to have upon our planning for cooperative defense of the
Western Hemisphere?
[Page 246]
We know that the world peacetime demand is increasing each year. We
can safely assume that normal peacetime demand for petroleum is
going to increase year by year. We must remember that with each year
that passes the increasing use of diesel fuel for railroads, heating
oil for homes, tractor fuel for food production and gasoline for
trucks and cars is shifting the balance of civilian usage so that
loss of it can be classified as non-essential. For this reason, the
demand for petroleum products to provide the minimum essential
civilian economy will unquestionably be greater than ever
before.
We think our planning will reveal that a great number of complicated
machines, using vast quantities of petroleum, will be required for
the most effective defense of our Hemisphere. Probably our petroleum
requirements will be substantially greater than those of World War
II. The petroleum demand for ground and Naval forces should be
roughly proportionate to that of World War II but not so for the air
forces. Jet powered counterparts of World War II fighter planes and
bombers use from three to five times as much fuel per hour as the
World War II planes. It is entirely probable that we may require
more aviation gasoline alone than was required by the entire
military establishment in World War II.
When all of the probable requirements for petroleum are added
together we have a tremendous figure, in the vicinity of nine to ten
million barrels per day. The consequent problem of supply staggers
the imagination. What can we do to solve this problem?
According to the best estimates of military and industrial planners,
it will not be possible to supply nine to ten million barrels per
day from presently known Hemisphere sources. The apparent shortage
appears to be in the neighborhood of two to three million barrels
per day. All American nations must take coordinated action to help
make up this deficit.
In the United States, studies are presently under way by industry
planners to appraise the practicability of building up a synthetic
petroleum industry, large enough to overcome the deficit indicated
above. Studies thus far indicate that because of the enormous
amounts of material which must go into synthetic plants, the
development of a synthetic petroleum industry adequate to meet our
needs would make the present shortage of steel for all purposes,
including petroleum development, much more acute.
Geologists consider that there are large quantities of natural
petroleum still undiscovered and undeveloped in the Western
Hemisphere. The United States is making intensive efforts to develop
such resources within its own borders. If all Western Hemisphere
nations do likewise we can very probably develop sufficient
petroleum resources within our Hemisphere to meet our maximum
planning requirements. However, [Page 247] resolutions by the Bogotá Conference looking
toward the development of these resources will not be enough. It
will be necessary to push through to final completion actual and
concrete measures to make this resource development a matter of
accomplishment. Many American States have requested military
equipment and other facilities in order to effectuate their share of
the hemispheric defense program. Nearly all of this equipment is oil
consuming. The United States does not have the resources to provide
petroleum products to maintain this equipment in action.
It is therefore imperative that every American nation take those
measures necessary to bring about a development of its petroleum
resources so that each can assume its full share of responsibility
should it become necessary to implement our planning for defense of
our-Hemisphere.