393.1115/10–2348: Telegram

The Ambassador in China (Stuart) to the Secretary of State

1981. We have instructed Consulates Peiping, Tientsin to issue formal warning along lines Deptel 1469, October 19. Release date will be Tuesday, October 26, noon, Peiping standard time. We have requested Tientsin, Peiping to telegraph directly Department best estimate number Americans who will leave in response to warning (reDeptel 1457, October 15).

Although Department may wish to restrict its comments to press to bare statement that recent military developments in North China indicate capability of Communists to concentrate large forces against Peiping, Tientsin area, with resulting increased threat to that area, facts of matter are that fall of Tsinan has released Communist troops for attack northward to Tientsin, Peiping area; that fall of Changchun has released large forces to increase threat to Mukden and corridor with result there is little prospect Nationalist forces can hold [Page 858] corridor; that fall of Taiyuan is imminent, releasing still further Communist forces to be concentrated against Peiping–Tientsin area; and that Fu Tso-yi,96 lacking reinforcements, is unlikely to attempt hold area under greatly increased pressure and may be expected to withdraw westward.

Repeated Shanghai for Connors.

Sent Department, repeated Tientsin 174, Peiping 190, Shanghai 976.

  1. Commander in Chief, North China Bandit Suppression Forces.