893.50 Recovery/12–1848: Telegram
The Ambassador in China (Stuart) to the Secretary of State11
[Received December 18—12:53 p.m.]
2575. Problem of continuing delivery munitions under China Aid Act, it seems to us, is inextricably involved in future policy toward China (your 1845, December 16). To stop shipments at this time would inevitably be taken as confirmation of already growing belief that we are through with Chiang Kai-shek and favor coalition. It would certainly discourage those forces both within and without Government desiring continue resistance to Communism. Those forces are without leadership and may prove ineffective. Hu Shih has been brought here by Generalissimo especially to seek some means of making effective continued resistance and Hu is feverishly seeking means to that end. Cessation munition shipments would make inevitable failure any prospects he has.
Should our policy continue to involve support these elements resisting Communism, delivery such material should, we believe, be diverted to south China ports, preferably Canton rather than Taiwan. Our present belief is that when Generalissimo is forced flee Nanking his next headquarters will be Nanchang from whence he will hope to rally resistance into what may develop into guerrilla warfare. If he is driven from Nanchang, he will seek to establish his next headquarters [Page 236] in Canton. Taiwan would only come at much later date. To deliver military supplies to Taiwan at this stage would only, we believe, serve to increase obvious concern Taiwanese at incursion mainland refugees including Government organizations to that island.
- Copy sent to the Executive Secretary of the National Security Council on December 24.↩