893.00/2–1148
The Ambassador in China (Stuart) to the Secretary of State
[Received February 19.]
Sir: Ever since the announcement of Li Tsung-jen of his candidacy for the position of Vice-President under the new Constitution, we have been endeavoring to ascertain the motives behind this action. In our efforts we wrote to the Consul General in Peiping where Li Tsung-jen is now Director of the Generalissimo’s Headquarters, and asked for his estimation of the situation. Mr. Clubb’s reply of February 6, 1948, a copy of which is enclosed,38 gives the most plausible and interesting explanation of this action yet to reach us, and accordingly we are passing it on to the Department as of interest.
Briefly, Mr. Clubb feels that Li Tsung-jen is among those who have become convinced of the need of some sort of accommodation with the Communists; that the Generalissimo will never agree to an accommodation with the Communists; and that, therefore, he will inevitably have to step aside, leaving the Vice-President to assume his robe.
As we have reported in our telegrams, there can be no doubt that frustration and war weariness have reached such a stage that there are many who, in innocence of the implications of their actions, actively seek some sort of accommodation with the Communists. We know that the Generalissimo is adamant against such an accommodation, but we know also that he is a practical man. There is a rising tide of resentment against the present situation in China and a demand for change. The only obvious alternative to the Kuomintang is the Communists and we do not believe the majority now wish to [Page 88] turn to Communism. There is also reason to believe that the Communists may wish at this time to pause for breath and consolidate their gains. The scene is, therefore, set for a temporary accommodation. Much will depend, we believe, upon the extent, the timeliness, and the character of our Aid-to-China program and the reception it receives in China. If that program gives hope to the liberals of an alternative to Communism, they will likely seize it and may be able to avoid an accommodation with the Communists and proceed under evolutionary processes to a reorganized Government evolved from the present divergent forces comprising the Kuomintang. If not, we may look to increasing pressure for accommodation with the Communists.
Respectfully yours,
Minister-Counselor of Embassy
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