893.00/11–2048: Telegram
The Consul General at Peiping (Clubb) to the Secretary of State
[Received November 21—2:48 a. m.]
478. ReContel 473, November 18.34 Chinese newsman with good contacts yesterday offered following analysis military situation as it stands this date: Informant stated Fu Tso-yi possessed 300,000 troops north Hopeh in addition 100,000 Suiyuan and Chahar Provinces and that Communists entered Hopeh from Anchu (with units of 11 Communist columns identified) now total 7 columns. To this add 8 columns commanded by Nieh Jung-chen of which perhaps 4 had already returned to Paoting region west Hopeh. Computed total Communist force approximately 300,000 but opined Communists not yet in position take offensive action involving clash main strengths primarily because Communists face difficulties supply and probably will not choose to launch major offensive until such time as their rail system south Manchuria has been repaired and put into action. Informant said Fu on his part was also reluctant initiate offensive action because he was presently training additional troops. Noting existence powerful threat against Peiping–Tientsin rail line, he nevertheless expressed opinion battle main strengths would not occur immediate future.
It must be noted some opinion in Peiping academic circles tend to estimate military crisis this area will come next spring. This estimate I believe overly optimistic. It must be assumed probable Communists now moving reserves and supplies into Jehol for concentration behind Wall passes and that first phases of attack would be heralded by thorough disruption Peiping–Tientsin and Peiping–Kalgan rail lines.
Same informant estimated two sides had suffered nearly equal losses in Hsuchow battle where approximately 3,500 Nationalists faced some 16 Communist columns, of which 6 percent commanded by Chen Yi. Main losses on Nationalist side comprised two armies under Liu Ju-ming [Page 593] and two armies under Feng Chih-an35 which defected to Communists and one army of Seventh Corps commanded by Huang Po-tao.
Total Nationalist losses he estimated quarter or fifth of original force. He less definite re Communist losses, thought 100,000, but admitted Communists customarily remove their wounded. He expressed belief neither side had won decisive victory, that Chen Yi forces had suffered heaviest Communist losses, that Nationalists not in position pursue Communist retreat in good order. He observed Communist force commanded by Chen Keng36 had for reasons unknown remained inactive west of Hsuchow. Stated battle force northeast China would not be renewed in less than 3 months (it seems possible Chen Keng forces may be functioning as reserve which could still be thrown into battle under certain circumstances). It is to be noted moreover that press reports indicate battle may not be over.
Sent Department; repeated Nanking 709.