893.00/1–2348: Telegram

The Ambassador in China (Stuart) to the Secretary of State

150. In January 23 conversation with Ambassador, General Cheng Kai-min reported that members Political Science Group now strongly favor rapprochement with Soviet Union as means insuring China’s neutrality in anticipated Russo-American war, and that this would lead to Soviet pressure on Chinese Communists who are said to be more interested in consolidation local political control than participation in Central Government. General Cheng also stated that Hu Lin and others closely associated with Political Science Group together with [some] of its members in Government positions are committed these views and desire see Generalissimo go abroad after elections in order that understanding with Soviet Union might be reached, realizing Generalissimo implacably opposed such an attempt.

Comment: We have been informed also of a reported suggestion by Soviet Military Attaché, General Roschin, prior to his recent return Moscow, to Shao Li-tse that Chinese Government seek Soviet good offices to end civil war. In light both this circumstance and remarks General Cheng, it is possible that Soviets have offered to mediate to end civil war and that certain elements in Government are disposed to accept offer. We believe continued deterioration Government military situation to point where Government convinced ultimate defeat likely will predispose increasing number civil and military officials toward favorable consideration Soviet offer. Recent surrender Communist General Chen Yao-te reported in Hankow’s despatch 3, January 11 to Embassy, copy to Department,1 may well be deliberately formed contact between Communist and Nationalist military officials for negotiation possible military settlement.

We are now convinced Communist determination carry civil war to Central and South China and reiterate our belief Government unable contain war north Yellow River and our belief their chances military success no more likely on newly developing combat fronts than in North China. Thus, we feel strong possibility that Soviet offer may be regarded as increasingly attractive in Nationalist military circles.

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While we still inclined as result past experience to question general reliability information emanating from General Cheng, we feel in present instance that he may be aware of indirect Soviet approaches and responses such approaches may have elicited particularly in so far as such trend would inevitably endanger not only his official position but personal safety.

Stuart
  1. Not printed.