The Ambassador in China (Stuart) to the Secretary of State
[Received April 24—11:23 a.m.]
A–69. Following is substance of Tihwa’s telegrams No. 136, April 11, 7 p.m. and 137 of April 12, 4 p.m., 1947:
“No present evidence apparent of any favorable reception for Communist economic theory here. Native agitation seems instigated by wealthy educated few seeking political liberty rather than economic upset. Political liberty is also Chairman’s avowed goal. Accordingly, if China can avoid interference with Islamic customs, improve economic conditions without attacking present distribution of wealth, establish educational and health facilities and continue progressively to satisfy native desires for freedom, serious disorder can probably [Page 552] be prevented until next winter by which time change policies may be accepted [so?] that it would be hard for agitators to break the peace.
“The danger of this winter’s snow, which provided water for cavalry and at same time hampered infantry by blocked roads and unaccustomed cold, has now vanished with its melting. Warmer weather leaves Han foot and motorized units more mobile and better able to use their numerical advantage while lack of adequate waterholes seriously handicaps movement of native mounted troops.
“In event of serious Soviet intervention, even though covert, foregoing picture would of course be completely changed.”