893.00/10–2747: Telegram

The Ambassador in China (Stuart) to the Secretary of State

2146. Recent intensified Government press attacks against Democratic League have convinced League leaders that complete suppression of League is imminent (Embassy’s dispatch 1064 of October 22). Nanking garrison command has announced that all members Chinese Communist Party and “persons having relations therewith” must register with garrison command between October 21 and October 31 or be subject to arrest. Democratic League interprets this as measure [Page 342] directed at it and anticipates wave of arrests commencing November 1.

In conversation with Ambassador on October 26, Dr. Lo Lung-chi stated that he had direct news from Chinese Communist Party and Lo states that Communists are much weakened militarily and politically, the latter due to a more pro-Russian group rising against Mao Tse-tung and other senior Communist leaders. Lo states Communists are ready to resume peace talks with Demo-Leagues [as?] mediator, but not United States unless Russia also included. As previously reported to the Department, Lo reiterates that Demo-League is becoming more disillusioned as a result of recent ruthless methods of CCP and is questioning earlier Communist attitude of cooperation. Demo-League apparently now recognizes that if Communist party should gain the ascendancy the League would have short shrift.

Information available to Embassy does not indicate that CCP has been weakened materially either militarily or politically. On military level, although certain Communist forces, notably in Shantung, have suffered reverses, no major Communist force has been fixed and destroyed; to a large extent, particularly in Manchuria, Communist forces continue to retain the initiative. Politically, continued general deterioration of economic situation tends to play into Communist hands. Furthermore, Embassy has no reason to believe that so-called pro-Russian group is coming to power within CCP, but believes that intensification of civil war is bringing about pronounced radicalization and acceleration of overall Communist program. One example is intensified program of land confiscation announced by Communists October 10. In addition, qualified foreign observers have recently reported increased terroristic methods against landlords and rich peasants in Shantung and Hopeh.

Intensification of civil war has greatly weakened position of Demo-League and Embassy considers it most unlikely that it could act as mediator between Communists and Government. On the contrary there is more reason to believe that the Communists are not interested in any form of mediation except on terms which Central Government could not accept. Government appears convinced, probably with good reason, middle and lower echelons of Demo-League are deviously infiltrated Communists. In present circumstances, League could be of limited use to Government as a façade of freedom of political expression, but current indications are that Government ineptitude will continue to repeat itself in this connection.

Embassy interprets Lo Lung-chi’s statement that he has “direct news” from CCP to indicate that he is receiving information from Communist-controlled areas rather than evidence that he is in direct communication with leaders of CCP. In their present extremity, League leaders appear to be seeking American support by endeavoring [Page 343] to establish themselves as a link between Kuomintang and CCP. It is doubtful that their prestige with either side is sufficient to warrant our outright support, but unrestrained Government action against them, however, unsupported by credible evidence that they are directly involved with the Communist, will tend further to alienate liberal and intellectual opinion against the Government and in such a situation we cannot expect to escape unscathed.

Embassy has already expressed to Prime Minister and members of Generalissimo’s household that current repressive measures against the League will tend to obtain bad press for Government abroad and that present strength and authority of League does not warrant such obvious attention from the Government.

Stuart