851.00/11–2947: Telegram
The Ambassador in France (Caffery) to the Secretary of State
5125. The following observations may be of help in evaluating present situation in France.1 Moscow and the Communist leadership in [Page 805] Paris would of course like nothing better than to be in the position to effect a general strike leading to the complete collapse of the government and the formation of a Communist dominated cabinet that would be subservient to the will of the Kremlin; but it is the opinion of those best qualified to judge these matters i.e., the trade union opposition to the Communists, that as things now stand the French Communist Party is not sufficiently strong successfully to carry out a general strike. First, strong opposition groups are now well organized among the miners, railway workers, PTT, civil servants and even metal workers as well as among other workers of lesser importance. This in itself may well prevent the Communists from fully developing and maintaining the present strikes on a national level in the most crucial sectors of the national economy, especially among the medium sized and small enterprises of which there are so many in France.
The most disturbing factor at the present time arises from the fact that the labor leaders who are resisting the Communist grip on the CGT have not been able (mostly from lack of funds) to organize effective opposition groups within several highly important trade unions, notably among the building trades, dock workers and Merchant Marine. The result is that although a considerable number of persons in 3 unions would prefer to work and perceive in the political nature of the strikes [apparent omission], they do not enjoy a medium of expression, cannot vote secretly for or against the strikes and cannot pass the picket lines.
Most qualified observers here hold the view that the Communists will not succeed in putting over a general strike but unquestionably will succeed in obtaining to a considerable degree their general objective, namely the exertion of great nuisance value at least to the extent of creating disorder, lowering production and in general harming but not completely paralyzing national economy. (In this connection Communist circles here are discussing the visit of Thorez and Dimitrov2 to Scotchi [Sochi] where they are believed to have received instructions from Stalin. These circles state that Stalin has ordered the French Communists to endeavor to sabotage the Marshall Plan as far as it is possible to do so without resort to armed action. They add that within a few days an important meeting of Cominform will take place at Belgrade at which the Italians in particular will be represented in force, and which Thorez may attend.)
Government intervention here against the strikes, especially the use of the army and police, raises a number of delicate problems and should governmental forces be utilized indiscreetly might well act as a [Page 806] boomerang against both the government and the anti-Communist forces in the trade unions. Where the opposition to the Communists is strong (as in case of the miners and railway and postal workers) the government may be able to act energetically on the side of the workers who desire to stay on the job; where the opposition is nil or hardly organized the result might be less happy as, for instance, among the dock workers and Merchant Marine. Many observers feel that, apart from providing for secret ballot and strike votes and providing protection for workers who wish to carry on, government should gain time and let the strikers get fed up as is usually the case in France, particularly when as at present general public opinion is strongly against the strikes. Consequently at present juncture indiscreet use of the army might prove as damaging as absence of forcible measures. The Communists in any case are preparing for any eventuality as evidenced by the formation, announced yesterday morning by Political Bureau, of National Strike Committee which is calling upon all party organizations to give moral and material support to the strikers. Qualified observers state that this strike committee is being run behind the scenes by Comintern-NKVD (Soviet) agents who are determined to create the utmost disorder short of armed insurrection.
In reporting the above I do not wish to minimize the extreme seriousness of the situation or to rule out the possibility that the present government may lack the strength and ingenuity to cope with it.
Sent Department as 5125; repeated to Secdel London as 881.
- On November 24 Robert Schuman took office as President of the Council of Ministers, succeeding Paul Ramadier, who had resigned on November 19 during a wave of strikes.↩
- Georgy (George) Dimitrov, a leader in the international Communist movement, at one time Chairman of the Presidium of the Communist International.↩