851.6131/8–1647: Telegram
The Acting Secretary of State to the Embassy in France
3294. Urtel 3298 Aug 16.1 Figures thousands of tons. US export availability estimated at IEFC Cereals meeting Aug 18–19 Winnipeg 13,500 with reservation allowing for possible further decrease because of reduced corn crop estimates. Latest estimate corn crop made public [Page 733] since Winnipeg meeting 2,436,699,000 bu or about 850,000,000 bu less than last year. This may reduce US availability still farther below last year’s approximate export of 15,000. While recognized that greatly reduced indigenous crop France this year compared last year makes larger contribution US necessary, reduced US availabilities and increased requirements other countries such as Germany, Italy, Austria and Greece severely limit volume shipments possible provide for France. Even if were possible make extraordinary shipments France prevent cut rations Sept 1 as suggested by Emb, would appear impossible continue shipments such magnitude remainder year. In fact in view large monthly export programs during early part crop year shipments from US expected taper off strongly last mos year.
In view reduction US availability mentioned above and recently announced great reduction Canadian availability, world exports of grain now estimated IEFC at 29,000 as compared 32,000 at Paris Cereals Conference July. Of this, 7,900 are from non-IEFC sources which considered less certain. For strictly confidential info Emb, pending formal IEFC screening all requirements for year, combined judgment IEFC Secretariat that based on total availability 29,000 share metro France from all sources 1,900, of which 1,100 from US and that Fr No Afr 430 of which 200 from US.
For Emb confidential info also, preliminary computation representing joint judgment IEFC Secretariat indicates 32,250 total shipments needed maintain present rations in world as compared availability 29,000. Consequently reductions rations many countries appear inevitable.
Re total required by France from all sources 1947–48 officials Dept and Agri and some members IEFC Secretariat made preliminary study questionnaire reply French Govt to IEFC with view noting possible savings which might reduce stated requirement of 2,600. Following noted:
| Reduction set-aside for wheat seed | 150 |
| Reduction wheat for feed | 40 |
| Increased use rye for food | 100 |
| Increased use barley for food | 350 |
| Use corn, buckwheat and other grains for food | 100 |
| Saving: by increased extraction | 100 |
| Reduction final stocks | 100 |
| Total reductions | 950 |
Noted from urtel 32932 planned increase barley utilization for food and industry over that indicated in IEFC questionnaire of about 220 and use oats for food about 160 plus some use oats processed foods. [Page 734] Presumably these changes from plan as submitted IEFC questionnaire reflect effect Paris Cereals Conference resolutions on collection coarse grains. Is there also prospect French may use most indigenous rye for food? Emb comments on other savings suggested above invited. It is of course not implied that it is Dept judgment that all savings suggested above will be found possible but seriousness situation requires that no means increasing availability indigenous grain for food be left unexplored.
Sent Paris repeated Clayton FAO Geneva.