Marshall Mission Files, Lot 54–D270
Memorandum by the Director of the Office of Far Eastern Affairs (Vincent) to the Acting Secretary of State
Mr. Clayton: Attached is the situation report on China94 which you asked me to prepare for you. I hope it is what you wanted.
I believe General Marshall’s efforts to bring about a solution will in the end succeed even though the progress is hard and slow. An interruption by civil warfare may bring wiser counsels to the fore, but as I said to you the other day the General’s very presence in China is in itself a beneficially moderating influence. I think therefore that we should persevere in our support of General Marshall and the policy he is pursuing.
In the light of my foregoing comment you may decide not to refer in the Cabinet meeting to my final paragraph, in which I take a speculative look into the future in anticipation of an unlikely but possible complete breakdown in the discussions.
We try to keep General Marshall informed with regard to discussions of China back here, and I would therefore appreciate your telling me, if you can, about what takes place at the Cabinet meeting if China is discussed. Even if there is no discussion you may want to leave the memorandum with the President to let him know something of our line of thinking in case you agree with that line.
I am thinking of preparing a telegram to General Marshall for your approval telling him that we are in full agreement with his method of handling the situation, particularly with regard to Chou En-lai, and also informing him of the view expressed in my memorandum that the time may be near for him bluntly to ask the Communists whether they wish to “fish or cut bait”.
- Infra.↩