Foreign Relations of the United States, 1946, The Far East: China, Volume X

Marshall Mission Files, Lot 54–D270

Memorandum by the Director of the Office of Far Eastern Affairs (Vincent) to the Acting Secretary of State ⁷²

[Washington,] September 18, 1946.

Mr. Clayton: At the meeting of the three Secretaries this morning I am told that Mr. Forrestal⁷³ is going to ask you “how General Marshall is getting along in China”.

I can think of no better way to answer the question than to let General Marshall speak for himself; that is, I would suggest that you read all of or excerpts from General Marshall’s last message to you and the President.⁷⁴

It is obvious that the General is not getting along any too fast but it is also obvious that he has no intention of getting out. As gloomy as the situation looks I’d still rather have my money on Marshall than in the stock market.

You may recall that in my conversation with Ambassador Koo and Minister-Counselor Tan (copies of the memoranda have gone to the White House) I have stressed the fact that, while we have no intention of becoming embroiled in China’s civil war, we certainly have no intention of “washing our hands” of the China problem. I attach copies of those memoranda in case you want to refer to them.⁷⁵

The very presence of General Marshall in China, irrespective of the progress being made in negotiations, is a moderating, if not stabilizing, influence. What he can’t accomplish today he may be able to accomplish tomorrow or next month. A period of civil strife may act to discredit the extremists on both sides and bring wiser counsels to the fore, making it possible for General Marshall to proceed with his program. I do not now believe that either of the alternatives—getting out of China or giving all-out support to Chiang, which would inevitably involve us in a civil war—is preferable to a continuation by General Marshall of his efforts, even though the present outlook is not bright.⁷⁶

J[ohn] C[arter] Vincent

72. William C. Clayton, Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs.
73. James Forrestal, Secretary of the Navy.
74. Telegram No. 1491, September 13, p. 186.
75. Mr. Vincent’s memoranda of August 13 and September 9, pp. 23 and 163, respectively.
76. At the 10:30 a.m. meeting of the Secretaries of State, War, and Navy, in response to Mr. Forrestal’s anticipated question, Mr. Clayton read General Marshall’s telegram No. 1491 of September 13 to President Truman (p. 186) and then delivered the gist of Mr. Vincent’s thinking as set forth in the last paragraph of this memorandum.