861.00/8–3046: Telegram
The Chargé in the Soviet Union (Durbrow) to the Secretary of State
urgent
[Received 11:15 a.m.]
3354. Paris for Ambassador Smith. As of possible interest to Dept there is given below an analysis as seen from here on various developments on internal front which are now prominent in Soviet press, details of which have been reported separately.
It has sometimes been assumed that because of dictatorial nature of Soviet Govt, its control over population through secret police and party apparatus, Soviet Union could avoid serious difficulties of reconversion and reconstruction which are facing capitalist countries. While because of difference in two systems problem is not exactly same in Soviet Union, it is now becoming clear that internal problems of getting back to Soviet “normalcy” are considerable.
For approximately 27 years (until Red Army invaded central Europe) Soviet Union has been to all intents and purposes hermetically sealed from outside world, population has been daily told that their plight was better than in most countries of world, and that in not too distant future life in Soviet Union would equal and surpass rest of world. People during three 5-year plans and devastating war have been urged to work harder and harder and tighten their belts and were led to believe that if they did good job, they would be rewarded by greater comforts and easier life.
These hopes have not been fulfilled. Instead, Soviet people have been told they must continue to work hard during at least three more 5–year plans which are to be devoted primarily to production of capital rather than consumers goods.
[Page 779]During war millions of Soviet citizens in Red Army had their first opportunity to make comparisons between life in Soviet Union and other countries. They undoubtedly noted that, in general, peasant or worker of central and eastern Europe lived better than they did. Amount of “liberated” cars, clothes brought back from West is concrete evidence to masses that individuals in other countries had more comforts than under Soviet system.
These various factors have undoubtedly caused many misgivings and doubts to arise in minds of large numbers of Soviet citizens. (Recently members of staff on trips through country have picked up concrete evidence of grumbling and discontent). In an effort to combat this development it will be recalled that just year ago Kalinin, in closed session, addressed large group of political agitators admonishing them to explain to masses that all was not gold which glittered in outside world. Apparently agitators were not too successful in their efforts to reach people and convince them. Therefore, a few months later Kalinin’s address was published in order to reach larger audience. This step also did not bring desired results.
It appears, therefore, that authorities on basis of soundings taken realized (1) that throughout population there was general apathy and desire to take it easy after splendid, Herculean efforts they had made to help win the war, (2) that zeal of party members was wearing thin and they were identifying themselves too closely with bureaucrats of economic apparatus in order attain with latter individual benefits and easier life, and (3) that industrial plant because of war destruction, lack of maintenance and excessive wear and tear was in much worse condition than they had at first realized. These natural developments must be coupled with fact that during war artificial stimulants and controls ordinarily called for under Soviet system were replaced by natural patriotic fervor and that now with latter incentive gone, controls of party and perhaps police must be tightened. Realizing this general situation, authorities apparently decided fairly drastic measures would have to be taken to get apparatus back on track and recoup setbacks soon as possible. They apparently also decided that deterioration of basic industry set up was such that they could not devote major part of national effort to production of consumers goods. Promises of better life had worn thin and in order to combat apathy and rebuild industrial base they had, after defeat of Hitler and his allies, to conjure up new boogieman, real or fictitious, in effort to frighten people into putting their shoulder to wheel. For this purpose they revived during electoral compaign, particularly in Stalin’s aggressive and provocative speech of February 9, 1946,39 temporarily discarded [Page 780] spectre of “capitalist encirclement”. Whatever Kremlin’s views may be regarding imminency of open hostilities in what they believe to be inevitable and continuing struggle with foreign capitalism, we believe that immediate purpose of emphatic reintroduction of this specter is to spur masses to greater efforts in building Soviet might and power.
These efforts to whip up enthusiasm for coming 5-year plans have not yet given desired results. People want more of good things of life. Furthermore, capitalist encirclement boogie has not yet quelled feeling of friendliness or respect on part of masses for war time allies of Soviet Union. There seems to be some reason to believe that rumored differences between high army officers and party, manifested by disappearance of Zhukov from center of stage, may well be partly connected with this development. It has been rumored that some of these officers have felt that aggressive political policy of Soviet Govt in international arena may lead to serious consequences for which country is not militarily or industrially prepared. Furthermore, it is possible that these officers, who had close contact with Western armies, appreciate more fully military strength of West and, therefore, have misgivings regarding aggressive policy now being followed.
Other recent developments, such as attack on Western influence among writers, theater and movie producers, and broadcasters, sharp criticism of lack of discipline in party controls, corruption in industrial field, and general apathy all along line, give further indications of serious problems by authorities on internal front.
Nature of Soviet system is such that if party controls break down, whole system will tend to come apart at seams. Other methods having so far not brought about desired results, it now appears that authorities have fallen back on their time-honored method and only one they fully understand—attainment of desired results by threat of force and fear, backed by ideological verbiage and revival of their well-known safety valve—self-criticism. Whether methods of public denunciation now being used will attain desired results or whether in end it might become necessary to carry on fairly large scale purge is probably yet undertermined.
Up to present moment evidence points to fact that authorities hope to bring about desired results without having to revert to a purge, which in itself would further weaken apparatus because of its demoralizing effect. There are too few technicians and experts in country who are capable of running industrial plant, so that authorities cannot afford, if they can attain ends by other means, to lose their services through purge.
[Page 781]There are no indications that these developments, although undoubtedly serious, reflect anything like breakdown of system. Party still retains control, should weather storm, and recoup at least some of ground lost during war. These developments do indicate, nevertheless, that at least for time being and most likely for some time to come Soviet authorities are facing serious internal problems in returning to “normalcy”.
Thus, to still unresolved stresses and problems of Soviet system there have been added additional internal difficulties arising out of war which constitute prime factors in any evaluation of Soviet strength.