Office of the Historian

893.00/11–2045: Telegram

The Consul General at Shanghai (Josselyn) to the Secretary of State 50

Shanghai, November 20, 1945—5 p.m.
[Received November 22—7:50 a.m.]

240. 1. Following information is from Commercial Attaché Calder utilizing his local contacts and background:

a.
It is reported by members Soviet Club that Soviet Consulate will reopen shortly. Consulate has been officially closed in recent years obviously to avoid dealing with Nanking puppet régime but had consular representative from Soviet Embassy [at] Tokyo resident here. Delay in reopening since V–J Day seemed to indicate uncertainty [Page 649] with regard to policies for dealing with problem of local Russian population and for dealing with regional Chinese authorities. If report regarding opening is correct, it would indicate these policies now crystallized and that among other things definite action will be taken with regard to citizenship of local Russians. Some 12,000 of these are reported to have made application for Soviet citizenship since June 1941 while the Russian Emigrants Committee has 11,000 non-Soviets registered. Apparently many are registered both places so actual number local Russians not known exactly but probably between 15,000 and 20,000.
b.
New Life, regarded as semi-official Soviet paper, November 13 published news items quoting Chinese paper as stating that Soviet merchant vessels will shortly arrive Shanghai from Vladivostok bringing medical supplies and printed matter. Unpublished reports believed reliable in Shanghai Soviet circles are that Soviet Government as friendly gesture to China will offer to repair the buildings of Chinese hospital in Nantao District and supply it with full equipment. (Effort will be made check through Chinese sources.)
c.
Certain students of Soviet Far Eastern policies believe latter’s present aims are make 38th parallel of latitude southern border of Soviet sphere for time being and until further penetration becomes feasible. This would bring Hokkaido, northern tip Honshu, Soviet occupied Korea, etc., west to the Tajikistan border with possible exception of Peking-Tientsin area within Soviet sphere. Recent developments and action taken or instigated by Soviets north of this parallel from Japan to Tajikistan point to this objective. The creation of a deadlock with the U. S. over control of Japan probably as a means to postpone indefinitely withdrawal from Manchuria, recently reported Soviet seizures of small islands in close proximity to eastern extremity of Hokkaido which islands can scarcely be regarded as part of Kuriles which were apparently conceded to Japan at Yalta,51 apparent Soviet support and collusion with Chinese Communists at ports in the Liaotung Gulf and in Inner Mongolia, the various disturbances carried on in Sinkiang by tribes closely affiliated with the populations of the Soviet Central Asia Republics, and the circumscribing of activities of Chinese officials sent by Chungking Government to Manchuria, all appear to substantiate this thesis. It is thought likely that in negotiations for settlement of the deadlock Soviets will demand control of Hokkaido and of northern tip of Honshu north of 38th parallel on grounds that for security and defense they will require control of both sides of La Perouse and Tsugaru Straits as an inner line of protection secondary to outer Kurile chain barrier.
d.
Should such demands not be readily acceded to, it is assumed that this ultimate objective will be pursued more deliberately by means of infiltration of Soviet-trained Jap Communists, the aim being to bring about ultimate Soviet control of Japan, employing the technique of “self-determination”, American expressions favoring this principle presumably being used to advantage at all points along the 38th parallel.
e.
It is, of course, impossible to gauge correctness of foregoing forecasts but developments so far would indicate a shaping of affairs somewhat successfully in furtherance of Soviet designs with thwarting of American aims and expectations.

2. Calder and I would appreciate an expression from Department regarding value this type of study and continuance of reports on this subject.52

Sent to Dept, repeated to Chungking.

Josselyn
  1. Repeated by the Secretary of State in telegram No. 2405, November 28, 1 p.m., to the Ambassador in the Soviet Union (Harriman).↩
  2. See Department of State Bulletin, February 10, 1946, p. 189; for text of agreement signed at Yalta, February 11, 1945, see ibid., February 24, 1946, p. 282 or Foreign Relations, Conferences at Malta and Yalta, 1945, p. 984.↩
  3. In telegram No. 316, December 18, 8 p.m., not printed, the Consul General was instructed to continue such reports and to make them more complete.↩