893.00/9–344: Airgram
The Consul at Kweilin (Ringwalt) to the Ambassador in China (Gauss)55
A–34. Marshal Li Chi-shen has closed up his residence in Kweilin and on August 31 he left for his home in Wuchow.
Following is an evaluation of the Li Chi-shen movement as given me by a close associate and strong supporter of General Pai Chung-hsi:
Chiang Kai-shek is doomed unless (1) he can find a basis for rapprochement with the U. S. S. R., (2) he is prepared to do something to improve his relations with the United States which as everybody knows have been deteriorating rapidly, or (3) he makes some concrete gesture toward representative government such as the invitation of men of ability and national repute to assume positions of authority in national [Page 544] affairs. Unless conditions improve, the present regime will collapse of its own weight in the next few months. Its collapse will be hastened by (1) a worsening of relations with the United States, (2) an open break with the U. S. S. R., (3) an outbreak of hostilities with the Yenan Communists, or (4) a further severe military setback.
Li Chi-shen is the only Chinese with sufficient prestige to obtain the support of all dissident elements. There is no doubt that Lung Yun, the Szechuan and Shensi generals and even Yen Hsi-shan will follow Li if an open break with Chungking takes place. Li will, of course, have the entire support of Hsueh Yueh, Yu Han-mou, and the Cantonese clique generally. As for Kwangsi, much will depend on the attitude of the Central Government. The two outstanding Kwangsi generals, Pai Chung-hsi and Li Chung-j en, will try to remain neutral and to mediate between Marshal Li and the Generalissimo. As long as General Pai remains the Generalissimo’s representative in Kweilin, the Provincial Government’s loyalty can be counted on, but if the Generalissimo sends an outsider to Kweilin to spy on the provincial leaders, popular resentment will be such as to force General Pai over to Marshal Li’s camp.*