893.00/8–2844
Memorandum by the Chief of the Division of Chinese Affairs (Vincent)39
Memorandum for the President
We have received a number of despatches and telegrams from Ambassador Gauss at Chungking in regard to dissident political developments in southwest China in opposition to Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek and the National (Kuomintang) Government. Although the Ambassador feels that the situation is serious, he does not foresee that the movement will spread or result in civil war.
Whereas this dissident movement does not have sufficient strength of cohesion to constitute organized opposition to the National Government, it is symptomatic of a general feeling of dissatisfaction throughout the country with the undemocratic, selfish and unconstructive policies of the leaders of the Kuomintang. If the movement could bring home to Chiang Kai-shek the necessity for broadening the base of his present government to include influential non-Kuomin-tang elements it would serve a useful purpose. It is not believed that a reform of the present government would bring about any radical change in the situation in China but in all probability it would strengthen popular resistance against the Japanese and create a situation in Chungking more agreeable to us now and more promising for our future relations with China.
Should the movement crystallize it is possible that there might be disturbances in Yunnan Province where our Fourteenth Air Force is based and where most of the material assistance to that force and to [Page 525] the Chinese is landed by plane. However, Ambassador Gauss believes that the troops of the Generalissimo could successfully suppress any insubordinate uprising in that province. It is our belief that the necessity for such action would not arise because the governor of the province of Yunnan is unlikely to make any move which would bring him or his troops into open conflict with the Generalissimo.
- Based upon longer memorandum of August 21 by the Chief of the Division of Chinese Affairs for the Secretary of State; left with President Roosevelt on August 28 by the Secretary of State.↩