893.00/8–1744: Telegram
The Ambassador in China (Gauss) to the Secretary of State
[Received 1:22 p.m.]
1423. Having now assembled all available information from Kweilin, Kunming, Chengtu and Yunnan, the Embassy is of the opinion that the movement being fostered by Marshal Li Chi-shen gives no present indications of spreading beyond his area in the southeast or of resulting in immediate civil war. It is our opinion that the movement has grown out of the necessity as sent [seen?] by Li and his associates of taking action to defend that area from the Japs, the Central Government having signally failed to make such defense or to assist local forces with funds and equipment for that purpose.
Li may proceed with his plans for separation from National Government; and Kwangsi, Kwangtung and part of Hunan and Fukien may for time being be severed from the National Government. There are no National Government troops known to be in those areas who would likely oppose Li’s forces. Li does not appear, however, to have sufficient strength or funds to sustain a large scale separatist movement and it is doubtful whether movement can survive any strong Jap pressure against the troops of Li and his associates. If Japs should continue their southward drive from Hengyang in strength or resume strong offensive north from Canton area, Li’s forces would undoubtedly not be able to stop them. If the war-lords of Yunnan and Szechwan were to support the movement, the National Government would probably be forced to endeavor to suppress it with arms and there are Central Government troops in those provinces which could be employed probably successfully for that purpose. Penfield at Chengtu has found no indication there of active interest in or support of movement at this time. Federation of Democratic Parties, while favorable to underground support of Li, are hesitant in their attitude and it is not believed that they dare come out in the open at this time. [Page 511] Although Communists in the southeastern area near the coast might find it desirable to affiliate with Li’s faction for time being, the Communists at Yenan apparently are at present holding aloof from the movement.