893.00/8–144
The Consul General at Kunming (Langdon) to the Secretary of State 23
[Received August 22.]
Sir: Referring to the Consulate General’s despatch No. 51 of July 14, 1944 in regard to future political developments in China, I have the honor to inform the Department of the views of Chinese liberals at Kunming regarding Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek, views which reveal the serious decline of his prestige among Chinese liberals and which describe the criticism of and opposition to his leadership.
These views, expressed in the strictest confidence to an officer of the Consulate General by Kuomintang and independent liberals, are believed to be representative of liberal sentiment in free China. The observations reported in this despatch are the more significant in that they are made by Chinese observers who are well-informed through their close connection with persons in the Government and who have supported the Kuomintang for many years. Some of them have been on the fringe of governmental affairs through their participation in the People’s Political Council. These observers, while critical of the [Page 494] Generalissimo and Kuomintang leadership, refuse to associate themselves with the movement in opposition to the present Government (Consulate General’s despatch under reference) and are not sympathetic to the Chinese Communist Party. They may be classified as the exponents of the American and British liberal tradition in the Chinese scene, although many of them are viewed as “radicals” by the Kuomintang.
Summary. Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek is an ignorant, vain man of limited ability and vision, who has emerged as a full military dictator through his native shrewdness and political strategy superior to his possible rivals. He has no conception of democracy and constitutional government and is ideologically committed to fascist principles. In the past it was generally agreed among all classes of Chinese that the Generalissimo’s leadership was necessary to internal unity and to the prosecution of the war against Japan, but within the last year his prestige has seriously declined. While no open criticism is made of the Generalissimo, he is held solely responsible for the failure of the Government to make any reforms or changes which would enable China to meet the grave economic and military crisis. Liberals can contribute nothing to his Government as policies are dictated by the Generalissimo. He and his clique, the members of which are completely subordinate to him and could be dismissed if the Generalissimo so desired, are incapable of building a modern nation in China. Their lust for power, their control over the various phases of national life and their disregard of public opinion indicate that the Generalissimo will not relinquish his control except under military pressure. The Generalissimo will not compromise with his internal opposition and an active movement against his authority lacks the military power necessary to accomplish his downfall. The future of China is dark under his leadership, but the only alternative is the Chinese Communist Party—an alternative opposed by the majority of Chinese liberals. The Generalissimo is certain of victory over Japan—the United States ensures that victory and American military and material aid are guarantees for his retention of power. His ideological concepts and anti-foreign bias and Kuomintang machinations directed toward bordering countries bode ill for the future of China and the Far East. End of Summary.
[Here follows detailed report.]
A pessimistic view must be taken of the future of China. The Generalissimo and his clique have no rational plans for China’s postwar reconstruction. They have been dazzled by the success of the Soviet Union’s various plans, but they on the other hand have only hazy grandiose schemes for China’s economic reconstruction. The Generalissimo’s book, China’s Destiny, gives some inkling of his ideas in his scale of so many planes, automobiles, railway lines, et cetera. Planning is haphazard, confused and ambitious but entirely unrealistic. The Central Planning Board, ostensibly established for the purpose of post-war planning, is headed by the mediocre General [Page 495] Hsiung Shih-hui. Fortunately, the Central Planning Board is mere window-dressing, but unfortunately the final decisions on reconstruction come from the Generalissimo and his clique. Under such leadership China can never become a strong nation.
In the field of foreign relations, Kuomintang chauvinism and machinations give indications of possible future trouble in the Far East. The ineptitude of Kuomintang leadership is revealed in the undercover movements, thinly veiling Chinese aspirations in Indochina and Burma, being promoted by the Kuomintang and in Chinese preoccupation with Tibet, Outer Mongolia and Korea at a time when the full attention and effort of the Chinese Government should be concentrated on the war against Japan and on cooperation with her Allies in that war. The Kuomintang almost openly proclaims Soviet Russia and Great Britain as China’s real enemies. The Generalissimo is fully aware of these Kuomintang machinations and approves them.
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Forces Opposing the Generalissimo. The forces which might support an active movement against the supreme authority of the Generalissimo include four groups: the Chinese Communist Party, provincial warlords, the Federation of Chinese Democratic Parties and Chinese cultural elements. The Communists are easily the most important of these four groups as without their military assistance success for such a movement would be impossible. The warlords give visible proof of one grave error on the part of the Generalissimo: they are relics of the past and should have been destroyed long ago. The Federation of Chinese Democratic Parties is composed of honest, sincere men but the organization contains no men of stature capable of being leaders. The Chinese cultural elements include writers and newspapermen, some of whom have prostituted themselves to provincial leaders in the past. An active movement against the Generalissimo cannot succeed, as such a movement would necessarily be predicated upon the show of military force. Weak as the Central Government armies have shown themselves to be against the Japanese, they are larger than all other forces combined and more than a match for the opposing forces which might be arrayed against them at present. Promises of support from provincial warlords cannot be relied upon, as General Lung Yun, for example, is far too clever to fall in with such a movement unless he was certain of its success.
In the unlikely event that a movement against the Generalissimo should succeed, minority party and provincial leaders would probably find themselves in the position of a “Kerensky Government” as the Chinese Communist Party leaders are master political strategists and might be expected to take advantage of the situation and their superior organization to seize complete power. In such an event Communist [Page 496] armies could carry on guerrilla warfare against the Japanese in occupied areas but could not hope to oppose the Japanese in positional warfare as the Central Government armies are now doing, even though feebly. Even if the Generalissimo were overthrown for a brief period, it is most likely that he would escape and return later to replace a regime which would be unable to prosecute the war against Japan. The Generalissimo feels that he is sufficiently strong to overcome any possible coalition of forces and there is no likelihood that he will compromise with the Chinese Communists, as he expects that the end of the war will find American-trained and -equipped Central Government armies which will force Communist capitulation or else make possible a rapid liquidation of the Communist forces.
The Prospect for China. The Generalissimo will, therefore, “ride out” the war in power, chiefly faute de mieux, and he and his clique, men of second-rate minds, will direct the building of the future China. He and his clique are certain of victory against Japan—the United States and Great Britain ensure that victory; therefore, he and the Kuomintang place emphasis on post-war reconstruction, a policy which inevitably results in neglect of the war against Japan. He controls the large majority of armed forces in free China; through his secret police he has the power of life and death over the Chinese people; through the Minister of Education he is extending his control over the thought and education of Chinese youth; and through various organs of the Government he is endeavoring to extend the economic and financial control of the Government, and consequently of the Party, over the economic life of the nation. The prospects for China are not promising and the present trends can be changed only through the death of General Chiang or by successful revolution.
Respectfully yours,
- Drafted by the Consul at Kunming (Sprouse).↩